Manifold MarketsClosedNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedThis market resolved: Paul Seixas (99%)
Resolved: Oct 10, 2026, 3:07 PM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Winning Outcome
Paul Seixas
At 7 days out
—
At 24 hours out
10%
SurpriseData quality warningStale data
Data as of Oct 11, 2026, 5:22 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Probability Timeline
Isaac del Toro25.4%
Remco Evenepoel25.5%
Primoz Roglic2.8%
Florian Lipowitz1.8%
Enric Mas3.1%
Paul Seixas10.1%
Ben Healy1.8%
Giulio Ciccone5%
Mathieu van der Poel1.2%
Tom Pidcock5.3%
Other12.4%
Tadej Pogacar1%
Davide Piganzoli3.3%
Jarno Widar3.5%
Won
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Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Rules
The last monument of the year will take place on October 10th 2026.
- The last five years it was won by the named outcome who will likely not start due to his crash in La Vuelta.
- Resolves 100% to the official winner after the race.
- Market will be resolved after the race and won't be reresolved in the future.
- More information: https://www.procyclingstats.com/race/il-lombardia/2026
- Official Website: https://www.ilombardia.it/
