Which major US health insurer will first mention tobacco harm reduction--by vaping or pouch use--in enrollee materials?

One-OffHealth & Medicine Business & Corporate1y

Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibrated

Data quality warningStale data

Data as of Jul 21, 2026, 11:50 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-3

Current community forecast

CVS/Aetna 50.6%+10.6pt

Leader of 7 outcomes

Forecasters

Question type

multiple choice

Methodology

Play-money forecasting platform

Source type

Forecast

Market data

Updated 6 days ago

Stale

Jul 7, 26, 11:49 PMAug 1, 27, 3:59 AM

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice

Selected outcome

Elevance8%

Stake (USDT)

Rules

It is in the economic interest of insurance companies that enrollees who smoke cigarettes shift their nicotine consumer behavior to vaping or nicotine pouches.

Resolution Criteria: Resolves to press release or online materials (with company logo) from one of the companies listed
Resolution Sources: Official press releases or other public domain information

Volume trend

$34

Jul 94d of dataJul 21

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