Manifold MarketsClosedNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedThis market resolved: Aonishiki (86.7%)
Resolved: Jul 26, 2026, 9:07 AM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Current community forecastHoshoryu 0.1%-0.1%Leader of 43 outcomes
Forecasters
22
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 2 hours ago
StaleJul 8, 26, 1:36 PMJul 26, 26, 8:00 AM
Probability Timeline
Hoshoryu0.9%
Onosato1.9%
Kirishima4.4%
Kotozakura0.3%
Atamifuji5.7%
Kotoshoho0.5%
Wakatakakage0.1%
Aonishiki86.7%
Yoshinofuji0%
Fujinokawa0.4%
Takanosho0.3%
Gonoyama0.3%
Churanoumi0.2%
Hiradoumi0.2%
Hakunofuji0.3%
Daieisho1.3%
Ichiyamamoto0.4%
Ura0.2%
Oshoma0.4%
Shodai0.2%
Fujiseiun0.7%
Kotoeiho0.3%
Takayasu0.5%
Wakamotoharu0.4%
Roga0.2%
Fujiryoga0.4%
Tobizaru0.2%
Asanoyama0.3%
Chiyoshoma0.2%
Wakanosho0.7%
Mitakeumi0.2%
Asahakuryu0.4%
Abi0%
Nishikifuji1%
Takerufuji0.3%
Kinbozan0.2%
Shishi0.5%
Onokatsu0.2%
Kazuma0.4%
Daiseizan0%
Asakoryu0%
Oho0.4%
Other0.4%
4.4%
5.7%
86.7%
0.1%
0%
0%
This market has closed. Mock trading is available on open markets only.
Volume trend
$601Jul 818d of dataJul 26
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Rules
Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to the wrestler who officially wins the Makuuchi (top division) championship (yūshō) at the July 2026 Grand Sumo Tournament (Nagoya Basho), scheduled to take place from July 12 to July 26, 2026.
- Resolution will be based on the official tournament results published on the Nihon Sumo Kyokai (Japan Sumo Association) Official Website.
- If a playoff (yūshō-ketsu-sen) is required to determine the tournament winner, the wrestler who wins the playoff will resolve as YES.
- If a wrestler not explicitly listed in the available options wins the championship, the market will resolve to the Other option (which is automatically generated by the platform).
- If the tournament is canceled, suspended, or abandoned without an official champion being declared by the Japan Sumo Association, this market will resolve N/A.