Current community forecast
<=10^50 62.8%Leader of 3 outcomes
Forecasters
1
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 11 hours ago
StaleFeb 19, 26, 12:16 AM UTCFeb 19, 55, 12:13 AM UTC
Trends
Rules
Resolves to all answers indicating the size, in number of nodes, of the smallest DAG (directed acyclic graph) node-labeled with chess positions that proves a win for black, in a game of chess.
- A chess position here includes data on whose turn it is, location of all pieces, castling rights, en passant squares, and half-turns since the 50-move rule counter was reset.
- A DAG of positions proves a win or draw for black if:
- The collection includes the initial position
- In every position with white to move, all possible subsequent positions after a move by white are also included, with an edge from the former to the latter.
- In every position with black to move, either there is a mate-in-one, or a draw-in-one, or there is an edge from the position to another position, indicating the state after a legal move from black.
