Current community forecast
No 62.6%
Forecasters
5
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 8 hours ago
StaleAug 1, 26, 4:23 PM UTCJan 2, 39, 7:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Real-time whole human brain emulation runs before end of 2038 (not necessarily an 'upload' of a specific human).
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KalshiRules
This must be an accurate simulation of a whole human brain run on a non-neuronal substrate with at least real-time subject experience (1-1 or better emulation-time to clock-time).
- This would probably be silicon-chip-based substrate, perhaps GPU/CPU or analogue neuromorphic chips.
- Would need confirmation of high degree of fidelity of neural behavior to human neurons, and high degree of fidelity of neuronal population dynamics.
- Does not need to emulation physical behavior below neuron level resolution (e.g. protein complexes like ion channels, or movement of ions).
- Does not need to be a faithful replica of a specific human, just within behavioral distribution of neuronal dynamics observed in the general human population.
- This requires improvements in measuring neuronal population dynamics in the human population (e.g. by improved brain-computer-interface observations).
Open markets
SportsPOLYMARKETUS Open ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Alex Michelsen
- Michelsen Total Sets: O/U 3.5+34.5pt100%
- Michelsen Set 3 Winner+45.5pt100%
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+25 more outcomes
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POLYMARKETUEFA Champions League: 2027 Champion
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- Philadelphia-48.0pt8.9%
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- 24h Vol
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KALSHIUS Open Men's Singles Winner
- Carlos Alcaraz+1.0pt58%
- Alexander Zverev+4.0pt26%
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+45 more outcomes
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KALSHIBrace vs Sorribes Tormo
- Cadence Brace52%
- Sara Sorribes Tormo48%
- Total Vol
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- 24h Vol
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KALSHIShelton vs Alcaraz
- Carlos Alcaraz-1.0pt77.2%
- Ben Shelton+1.0pt22.8%
- Total Vol
- $2.1M
- 24h Vol
- $1.9M
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Real-time whole human brain emulation runs before end of 2038 (not necessarily an 'upload' of a specific human).?
- Manifold Markets prices No at 63% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Real-time whole human brain emulation runs before end of 2038 (not necessarily an 'upload' of a specific human). resolve?
- Real-time whole human brain emulation runs before end of 2038 (not necessarily an 'upload' of a specific human). is scheduled to resolve on January 2, 2039.
- How is Real-time whole human brain emulation runs before end of 2038 (not necessarily an 'upload' of a specific human). settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: This must be an accurate simulation of a whole human brain run on a non-neuronal substrate with at least real-time subject experience (1-1 or better emulation-time to clock-time).