Current community forecast
Cryptomania 66.5%Leader of 5 outcomes
Forecasters
9
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 7 hours ago
StaleApr 8, 24, 4:53 AM UTCJan 2, 00, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Rules
Russell Impagliazzo's A Personal Viewof Average-Case Complexity, presented at the 1995 Complexity Conference, describes five possible worlds and their implications to computer science:
- Algorithmica: P = NP or something "morally equivalent" like fast probabilistic algorithms for NP.
- This was the world I described last week but looking back at Impagliazzo's paper, he does a nicer job.
- Heuristica: NP problems are hard in the worst case but easy on average.
- Pessiland: NP problems hard on average but no one-way functions exist.
- We can easily create hard NP problems, but not hard NP problems where we know the solution.
Open markets
Exchange
ROBINHOOD (ROTHERA)Ben Shelton vs Carlos Alcaraz Quarter Finals match
- Carlos Alcaraz62.5%
- Ben Shelton+1.0pt37.5%
- Total Vol
- $534.5K
- 24h Vol
- $7.4M
ROBINHOOD (ROTHERA)Atpmatch MUSO 26 Ftiaamic
- AMIC+38.0pt78.4%
- FTIA-37.0pt21.6%
- Total Vol
- $5.4M
- 24h Vol
- $5.4M
POLYMARKETBitcoin above ___ on September 9?
- 72,000+0.3pt100%
- 74,000+0.9pt100%
- 68,000+0.1pt100%
+8 more outcomes
KALSHIBTC price on Sep 9, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $76,000 or above99%
- $75,000 or above99%
- $74,750 or above99%
+77 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $491.4K
- 24h Vol
- $491.3K
KALSHIBTC 15 min · $79,081.29 target
- Yes99%
- No1%
- Total Vol
- $1.2M
- 24h Vol
- $481.3K
KALSHIBTC price on Sep 9, 2026 at 3am EDT?
- $78,500 or above99%
- $78,600 or above99%
- $78,400 or above99%
+97 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $383.1K
- 24h Vol
- $366.5K
- BTC price on Sep 11, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- Ethereum above ___ on September 9?
- Wtamatch WUSO 26 Jpegenav
- Bitcoin above ___ on September 10?
- Anthropic IPO by which date?
- Bitcoin above ___ on September 11?
- Bitcoin price at the end of 2026
- How high will BTC get in September?
- Wtamatch WUSO 26 Mandcgau
- ETH price on Sep 9, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- Wtamatch WUSO 26 Qzheeryb
- Bitcoin price on September 9?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for P vs NP. Which of Impagliazzo's Five Worlds is true??
- Manifold Markets prices Cryptomania at 67% as of September 9, 2026.
- When does P vs NP. Which of Impagliazzo's Five Worlds is true? resolve?
- P vs NP. Which of Impagliazzo's Five Worlds is true? is scheduled to resolve on January 2, 3000.
- How is P vs NP. Which of Impagliazzo's Five Worlds is true? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Russell Impagliazzo's A Personal Viewof Average-Case Complexity, presented at the 1995 Complexity Conference, describes five possible worlds and their implications to computer science: