Manifold MarketsClosedNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedThis market resolved: No (92.6%)
Resolved: Oct 24, 2026, 3:56 AM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Data quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Oct 24, 2026, 6:00 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Probability Timeline
Yes7.4%
No92.6%
Won
Lost
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Rules
Janja Garnbret was recently seen trying Burden of Dreams, the first ever V17 boulder.
- The first ascent of Burden was 23 October 2016.
- Will Janja send it on or before its 10th anniversary: 23 October 2026?
