Is Satoshi Nakamoto = Craig Wright?

Frequently asked questions

What are the current odds for Is Satoshi Nakamoto = Craig Wright??

Manifold Markets prices No at 96.6% as of November 2, 2026.

When does Is Satoshi Nakamoto = Craig Wright? resolve?

Is Satoshi Nakamoto = Craig Wright? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2029.

How is Is Satoshi Nakamoto = Craig Wright? settled?

Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Gwern says "probably": https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=19746448

Use this market in code or an AI agent

Free JSON for this market, no API key needed:

AI agents: call pm_data_event on the CoinRithm MCP server:

POLYMARKET

Will 1win launch a token by which date?

• October100%

+2 more outcomes

Total Vol

$5.2M

24h Vol

$3.5M

POLYMARKET

What price will Bitcoin hit in November?

• ↓ 77,50092%
• ↑ 80,00086%
• ↓ 75,00064%

+16 more outcomes

Total Vol

$1.1M

24h Vol

$1.1M

KALSHI

BTC price on Nov 2, 2026 at 12am EST?

• $78,100 or above99.5%
• $78,000 or above99.5%
• $77,900 or above99.5%

KALSHI

BTC 15 min · $78,383.15 target

• No85.5%
• Yes14.5%

Total Vol

$1.4M

24h Vol

$995.3K

POLYMARKET

What price will Bitcoin hit October 26-November 1?

• ↑ 80,000-7.4pt0%
• ↑ 82,000-0.7pt0%
• ↑ 84,000-0.1pt0%

+17 more outcomes

POLYMARKET

Bitcoin above ___ on November 2?

• 70,000+0.3pt100%
• 72,000+0.3pt100%
• 74,000+1.6pt99%

+8 more outcomes

• BTC price on Nov 2, 2026 at 5pm EST?
• What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?
• What price will Bitcoin hit on November 1?
• BTC price on Nov 6, 2026 at 5pm EST?
• What price will Ethereum hit October 26-November 1?
• Ethereum above ___ on November 2?
• Ethereum above ___ on November 3?
• What price will Ethereum hit in November?
• How high will BTC get in November?
• Bitcoin above ___ on November 3?