Current community forecast
No 94%
Forecasters
17
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 14 hours ago
StaleAug 18, 24, 8:57 AM UTCJan 2, 30, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Rules
In 2030, a majority of experts will look back and agree that there was not significant justification for believing with greater than 90% confidence that Llama 3.1 405 would not provide the foundation for nefarious actors to produce existentially risky artificially intelligent systems.
- Will resolve to a consensus of experts in 2030.
- If no clear data exists that demonstrates the opinion of experts, a poll will be used for resolution.
