Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast2026 49%Leader of 6 outcomes
Forecasters
14
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 17 hours ago
StaleJun 2, 25, 5:12 AM UTCDec 31, 30, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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Manifold MarketsRules
Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to the first year in which global carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions from fossil fuels and industry decrease compared to the previous year.
- If no such decrease occurs by the end of 2029, the market will resolve to "the named outcome." The primary source for determining annual CO₂ emissions will be the Global Carbon Project's annual reports, which provide comprehensive and widely recognized data on global emissions.
- These reports, detailing emissions data for the preceding year, are typically published in an initial form in November or December of each year followed by a revised version a few months later.
- For example, the final revised 2024 report, released in March 2025, contains data for the year 2023.
- The most recent report can be accessed here: https://essd.copernicus.org/articles/17/965/2025/essd-17-965-2025-discussion.html
