Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastAfter 2029 26.7%Leader of 6 outcomes
Forecasters
11
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 9 hours ago
StaleJun 2, 25, 5:12 AM UTCDec 31, 30, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will global carbon dioxide emissions exceed 42,500 million metric tons in 2030?
ForecastExWill global carbon dioxide emissions exceed 43,500 million metric tons in 2030?
ForecastExWill the AI-based carbon emissions tracking startup reach 100 paying business customers by December 31, 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill global carbon dioxide emissions exceed 38,000 million metric tons in 2026?
ForecastExParis Accord goal of reducing global Greenhouse Gas Emissions by 43%: achieved by the end of 2030?
FutuurWill the US halve its emissions by 2030?
Manifold MarketsRules
Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to the first year in which global carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions from fossil fuels and industry decrease compared to the previous year.
- If no such decrease occurs by the end of 2029, the market will resolve to "the named outcome." The primary source for determining annual CO₂ emissions will be the Global Carbon Project's annual reports, which provide comprehensive and widely recognized data on global emissions.
- These reports, detailing emissions data for the preceding year, are typically published in an initial form in November or December of each year followed by a revised version a few months later.
- For example, the final revised 2024 report, released in March 2025, contains data for the year 2023.
- The most recent report can be accessed here: https://essd.copernicus.org/articles/17/965/2025/essd-17-965-2025-discussion.html
Open markets
Weather
KALSHIHighest temperature in Los Angeles on Sep 8, 2026?
- 88° to 89°+7.0pt33.6%
- 90° or above+18.0pt32.7%
- 86° to 87°-13.0pt23.1%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $274.9K
- 24h Vol
- $267.9K
KALSHIWhere will it rain on Sep 8, 2026?
- Houston+69.0pt99%
- Minneapolis+6.0pt99%
- Los Angeles+71.0pt75%
+19 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $229.5K
KALSHIHighest temperature in Miami on Sep 8, 2026?
- 92° to 93°+43.0pt89.3%
- 94° or above+2.0pt6.8%
- 90° to 91°-36.0pt1%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIHighest temperature in New York City on Sep 8, 2026?
- 80° to 81°+25.0pt70.9%
- 82° to 83°-15.0pt22.3%
- 79° or below-4.0pt3.9%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETHighest temperature in Chengdu on September 9?
- 27°C+60.0pt93.9%
- 28°C-13.5pt6.1%
- 21°C or below-1.4pt0%
+8 more outcomes
KALSHIWill a hurricane make landfall in Hawaii in 2026?
- No92%
- Yes-7.0pt8%
- Total Vol
- $77.5K
- 24h Vol
- $33.2K
- Highest temperature in Chicago on Sep 8, 2026?
- Highest temperature in Munich on September 9?
- Highest temperature in Austin on Sep 8, 2026?
- Highest temperature in Minneapolis on Sep 8, 2026?
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- Highest temperature in Tokyo on September 9?
- Highest temperature in San Francisco on Sep 8, 2026?
- Highest temperature in Philadelphia on Sep 8, 2026?
- Highest temperature in Houston on Sep 8, 2026?
- Highest temperature in Dallas on Sep 8, 2026?
- Highest temperature in Boston on Sep 8, 2026?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Global carbon emissions peak when ??
- Manifold Markets prices After 2029 at 27% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Global carbon emissions peak when ? resolve?
- Global carbon emissions peak when ? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2030.
- How is Global carbon emissions peak when ? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolution criteria