What are the current odds for By 2028, will I think Anthropic has been net-good for the world??

Manifold Markets prices Yes at 56.5% as of October 8, 2026.

By 2028, will I think Anthropic has been net-good for the world?

Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibrated

Current community forecast

Yes 56.5%

Forecasters

Question type

binary

Methodology

Play-money forecasting platform

Source type

Forecast

Market data

Updated 38 minutes ago

Dec 2, 22, 8:49 PM UTCJan 1, 28, 12:00 AM UTC

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Rules

Resolves according to my subjective judgement, but I'll take opinions of those I respect at the time into account.

As of market creation, people whose opinions I value highly include Eliezer Yudkowsky and Scott Alexander.
As of market creation, I consider that AI safety is important; making progress on it is good and making progress on AI capabilities is bad.
If I change my mind by 2028, I'll resolve according to my beliefs at the time.
I will take into account their output (e.g. papers, blog posts, people who've trained at them) but also their inputs (e.g. money and time).
I consider counterfactuals valid, like "okay Anthropic did X but maybe someone else would have done X anyway"; but currently I think those considerations tend to be weak and hard to evaluate.