By 2028, which country other than USA/China will be most important to AI?

ChinaOne-Off1y

Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibrated

Data quality warningStale data

Data as of Jul 20, 2026, 2:20 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-2

Current community forecast

UK 33.3%+2.4%

Leader of 11 outcomes

Forecasters

192

Question type

multiple choice

Methodology

Play-money forecasting platform

Source type

Forecast

Market data

Updated 5 days ago

Stale

Nov 24, 23, 2:04 PMJan 1, 28, 4:59 AM

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice

Selected outcome

UK33%

Stake (USDT)

Rules

Note that this question DOES NOT include importance via physical chip manufacturing and supply chain, which is why Taiwan and The Netherlands are not listed.

To avoid confusion and get at the question being asked, that is explicitly excluded.
If unclear, will resolve via best available consensus mechanism.
Will pick one winner even if unclear.
Will add additional countries upon reasonable request.
Motivation: Claim in Economist that UAE might be third most important (https://twitter.com/shashj/status/1727991912567583052)

Volume trend

$486

Jul 192d of dataJul 20

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By 2028, which country other than USA/China will be most important to AI?

ChinaOne-Off1y

Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibrated

Data quality warningStale data

Data as of Jul 20, 2026, 2:20 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-2

Current community forecast

UK 33.3%+2.4%

Leader of 11 outcomes

Forecasters

192

Question type

multiple choice

Methodology

Play-money forecasting platform

Source type

Forecast

Market data

Updated 5 days ago

Stale

Nov 24, 23, 2:04 PMJan 1, 28, 4:59 AM

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice

Selected outcome

UK33%

Stake (USDT)

Rules

Note that this question DOES NOT include importance via physical chip manufacturing and supply chain, which is why Taiwan and The Netherlands are not listed.

To avoid confusion and get at the question being asked, that is explicitly excluded.
If unclear, will resolve via best available consensus mechanism.
Will pick one winner even if unclear.
Will add additional countries upon reasonable request.
Motivation: Claim in Economist that UAE might be third most important (https://twitter.com/shashj/status/1727991912567583052)

Volume trend

$486

Jul 192d of dataJul 20

Related Markets

Valorant: FunPlus Phoenix vs Wolves Esports (BO3) - VCT China Stage 2 Seed Deciders

$263.5K

Match Winner: 100%

POLYMARKET

Valorant: Nova Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) - VCT China Stage 2 Seed Deciders

$119.4K

1 Winner: 64%

POLYMARKET