Probability Timeline
This market has closed. Mock trading is available on open markets only.
| Venue | Quality | Probability | vs reference | 24h Vol | Liq | Freshness | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Low | 99% | — | $13.4K | $87.2 | 38 days ago | Open → | |
| Low | 98% | — | $0 | $0 | 38 days ago |
Also available on Kalshi

Resolved
Yes (99%)


Rules
This market will resolve to "Up" if the Close price for S&P 500 ETF (Pyth SPY/USD) on June 18, 2026, is strictly higher than the Close price for S&P 500 ETF (Pyth SPY/USD) on the most recent prior trading day.
The Close price for S&P 500 ETF (Pyth SPY/USD) captured on June 17, 2026, was $740.93254.
Resolution source: Pyth SPY/USD price feed.
For example, a Monday market would ordinarily compare Monday's Close price with the previous Friday's Close price, unless that Friday was a market holiday.
If S&P 500 ETF (SPY) does not trade at all during the regular session on June 18, 2026, this market will resolve to "Down".
For a standard full trading session, the Close price refers to the "Close" value of the 1-minute Pyth candle corresponding to the final minute of regular trading hours on the primary exchange.
If either relevant trading day has no valid Pyth Close value for the 1-minute candle corresponding to the end of regular trading hours on the primary exchange, the last valid Pyth price during that day's regular trading hours will be used as the effective Close price.
If no valid Pyth price exists for that trading day due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption, the official closing price published by the primary exchange on which SPY is listed will be used to determine the Close price for that day.
In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting SPY during the relevant time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
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This market will resolve to "Up" if the Close price for S&P 500 ETF (Pyth SPY/USD) on June 18, 2026, is strictly higher than the Close price for S&P 500 ETF (Pyth SPY/USD) on the most recent prior trading day.
The Close price for S&P 500 ETF (Pyth SPY/USD) captured on June 17, 2026, was $740.93254.
Resolution source: Pyth SPY/USD price feed.
For example, a Monday market would ordinarily compare Monday's Close price with the previous Friday's Close price, unless that Friday was a market holiday.
If S&P 500 ETF (SPY) does not trade at all during the regular session on June 18, 2026, this market will resolve to "Down".
For a standard full trading session, the Close price refers to the "Close" value of the 1-minute Pyth candle corresponding to the final minute of regular trading hours on the primary exchange.
If either relevant trading day has no valid Pyth Close value for the 1-minute candle corresponding to the end of regular trading hours on the primary exchange, the last valid Pyth price during that day's regular trading hours will be used as the effective Close price.
If no valid Pyth price exists for that trading day due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption, the official closing price published by the primary exchange on which SPY is listed will be used to determine the Close price for that day.
In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting SPY during the relevant time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth.