KalshiClosedCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataRoughly calibratedThis market resolved: Argentina (99%)
Resolved: Jul 12, 2026, 4:09 AM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Winning Outcome
Argentina
At 7 days out
64%
At 24 hours out
75%
ConsensusSettlement provenance
- Standing outcome
- Argentina
- Recorded
- Jul 12, 2026, 4:19 AM
- Observations
- 1
- Revisions
- 0
- Method
- resolution_watch
Current implied probabilityArgentina 99%+24.0ptLeader of 48 outcomes
Market quality
49 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$429.1K
Liquidity
$4M
High liquidityBid / Ask
- / 100.0%
Market data
Updated 15 days ago
StaleJan 30, 26, 3:00 PMJul 12, 26, 1:39 AM
Probability Timeline
France78%
Mexico22%
Brazil36%
Paraguay4%
USA19%
Portugal20%
Argentina99%
England64%
Morocco21%
Switzerland1%
1%
99%
99%
1%
1%
1%
This market has closed. Mock trading is available on open markets only.
Compare venues· Argentina
Ranked by market quality, then liquidity and 24h volume| Venue | Quality | Probability | vs reference | 24h Vol | Liq | Freshness | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KalshiThis pageBest overall | Low | 99% | — | $429.1K | $4M | 15 days ago | |
 Polymarket95% match · verified | Low | 100% | — | $1.6K | $0 | 14 days ago | Open → |
Also available on Polymarket
World Cup: Nation To Reach Semifinals
25.6 ptsClosed
+25.4pt100%
+22.4pt100%
+24.4pt100%
+45 more outcomes
15 • Low qualitySpread unknownLow liquidity
Total Vol$5M
24h Vol$1.6K
POLYMARKETRules
If Mexico is one of the teams to qualify for the Semifinals in the 2026 FIFA World Cup, then the market resolves to Yes.
- This will be determined by whether or not they qualify; if they qualify but do not end up competing, the market will still resolve to Yes.
- This market and these products have not been endorsed by FIFA.
- Any references to "FIFA", the "FIFA World Cup," or any other associated marks are descriptive only, and do not indicate an endorsement of this product or any affiliation between FIFA and Kalshi.
- If Korea Republic is one of the teams to qualify for the Semifinals in the 2026 FIFA World Cup, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If South Africa is one of the teams to qualify for the Semifinals in the 2026 FIFA World Cup, then the market resolves to Yes.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
Large trades
$2.0k76.0%KALSHIArgentina — Yes16d ago
KALSHIArgentina — Yes16d ago$1.8k99.0%KALSHIEngland — Yes16d ago
KALSHIEngland — Yes16d ago$1.4k69.0%KALSHIBelgium — No17d ago
KALSHIBelgium — No17d ago$1.6k79.0%KALSHIFrance — Yes18d ago
KALSHIFrance — Yes18d ago$3.5k78.0%KALSHIFrance — Yes18d ago
KALSHIFrance — Yes18d ago$1.5k78.0%KALSHIFrance — Yes18d ago
KALSHIFrance — Yes18d ago$1.5k73.8%POLYMARKETWill Switzerland reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? — NoLeRoiSoleil20d ago
POLYMARKETWill Switzerland reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? — NoLeRoiSoleil20d ago$4.2k87.0%KALSHISwitzerland — No20d ago
KALSHISwitzerland — No20d agoVolume trend
$429.1kJul 211d of dataJul 12
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If Mexico is one of the teams to qualify for the Semifinals in the 2026 FIFA World Cup, then the market resolves to Yes.
- This will be determined by whether or not they qualify; if they qualify but do not end up competing, the market will still resolve to Yes.
- This market and these products have not been endorsed by FIFA.
- Any references to "FIFA", the "FIFA World Cup," or any other associated marks are descriptive only, and do not indicate an endorsement of this product or any affiliation between FIFA and Kalshi.
- If Korea Republic is one of the teams to qualify for the Semifinals in the 2026 FIFA World Cup, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If South Africa is one of the teams to qualify for the Semifinals in the 2026 FIFA World Cup, then the market resolves to Yes.