KalshiClosedCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedThis market resolved: Argentina (99%)
Resolved: Jul 7, 2026, 6:29 PM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Winning Outcome
Argentina
At 7 days out
—
At 24 hours out
—
Current implied probability
Argentina 99%+14.0ptLeader of 46 outcomes
Market quality
≤49 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$477K
Liquidity
$4.3M
High liquidityMarket data
Updated 66 days ago
StaleJan 30, 26, 3:00 PM UTCJul 7, 26, 6:19 PM UTC
Probability Timeline
USA1%
Mexico49%
Brazil63%
England54%
France92%
Belgium99%
Portugal34%
Spain66%
Argentina99%
Egypt1%
99%
99%
99%
99%
99%
99%
99%
9%
5%
3%
3%
2%
2%
2%
2%
2%
1%
1%
1%
1%
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Which country will be next to win their first FIFA World Cup?
Manifold MarketsWill either Messi, Ronaldo, or Neymar play in the 2030 World Cup?
Manifold Markets巴西会不会获得美加墨世界杯冠军
Manifold Markets2030 FIFA World Cup Qualifiers
KalshiMessi to play for Argentina again after the 2026 WC by Dec 31, 2026
Limitless2027 FIFA Women's World Cup Champion
KalshiRules
If Mexico is one of the teams to qualify for the Quarterfinals in the 2026 FIFA World Cup, then the market resolves to Yes.
- This will be determined by whether or not they qualify; if they qualify but do not end up competing, the market will still resolve to Yes.
- This market and these products have not been endorsed by FIFA.
- Any references to "FIFA", the "FIFA World Cup," or any other associated marks are descriptive only, and do not indicate an endorsement of this product or any affiliation between FIFA and Kalshi.
- If the named outcome is one of the teams to qualify for the Quarterfinals in the 2026 FIFA World Cup, then the market resolves to Yes.
