KalshiClosedCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataRoughly calibratedThis market resolved: Argentina (99%)
Resolved: Jul 15, 2026, 9:20 PM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Winning Outcome
Argentina
At 7 days out
44%
At 24 hours out
47%
SurpriseData quality warningStale data
Data as of Jul 15, 2026, 9:10 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-2
Settlement provenance
- Standing outcome
- Argentina
- Recorded
- Jul 15, 2026, 9:46 PM
- Observations
- 1
- Revisions
- 0
- Method
- resolution_watch
Current implied probabilityArgentina 99%+52.0ptLeader of 48 outcomes
Market quality
49 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$564.5K
Liquidity
$7.4M
High liquidityBid / Ask
99.0% / 100.0%
Spread
1.0 pt
Tight spreadMarket data
Updated 12 days ago
StaleJan 30, 26, 3:00 PMAug 3, 26, 2:00 PM
Probability Timeline
Argentina99%
England1%
Norway16%
USA8%
Algeria3%
France59%
Morocco9%
Spain39%
Mexico12%
99%
1%
99%
1%
1%
1%
This market has closed. Mock trading is available on open markets only.
Compare venues· Argentina
Ranked by market quality, then liquidity and 24h volume
Also available on Polymarket
World Cup: Nation to Reach Final
54.5 ptsClosed
+59.5pt100%
+53.6pt100%
-9.3pt0%
+45 more outcomes
24 • Low qualitySpread unknownLow liquidity
Total Vol$13.9M
24h Vol$193.3K
POLYMARKET
Also available on Limitless
2026 FIFA World Cup: Nation to Reach Final
Closed
50.1%
50.1%
50%
+10 more outcomes
7 • Low qualitySpread unknownLow liquidityThin market
Total Vol$395.2
24h Vol$20
LIMITLESSRules
If Mexico is one of the teams to qualify for the Final in the 2026 FIFA World Cup, then the market resolves to Yes.
- This will be determined by whether or not they qualify; if they qualify but do not end up competing, the market will still resolve to Yes.
- This market and these products have not been endorsed by FIFA.
- Any references to "FIFA", the "FIFA World Cup," or any other associated marks are descriptive only, and do not indicate an endorsement of this product or any affiliation between FIFA and Kalshi.
- If Korea Republic is one of the teams to qualify for the Final in the 2026 FIFA World Cup, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If South Africa is one of the teams to qualify for the Final in the 2026 FIFA World Cup, then the market resolves to Yes.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
Large trades
$1.8k47.0%KALSHIArgentina — Yes12d ago
KALSHIArgentina — Yes12d ago$7.8k47.0%KALSHIArgentina — Yes12d ago
KALSHIArgentina — Yes12d ago$5.4k55.0%POLYMARKETWill England reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? — Yes0x000c…bcf313d ago
POLYMARKETWill England reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? — Yes0x000c…bcf313d ago$1.4k47.0%KALSHIEngland — No13d ago
KALSHIEngland — No13d ago$4.9k46.0%POLYMARKETWill England reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? — Nopurplegatto13d ago
POLYMARKETWill England reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? — Nopurplegatto13d ago$3.7k93.0%KALSHIFrance — No13d ago
KALSHIFrance — No13d ago$1.3k93.0%KALSHIFrance — No13d ago
KALSHIFrance — No13d ago$1.8k90.0%KALSHISpain — Yes13d ago
KALSHISpain — Yes13d agoVolume trend
$564.5kJul 214d of dataJul 15
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If Mexico is one of the teams to qualify for the Final in the 2026 FIFA World Cup, then the market resolves to Yes.
- This will be determined by whether or not they qualify; if they qualify but do not end up competing, the market will still resolve to Yes.
- This market and these products have not been endorsed by FIFA.
- Any references to "FIFA", the "FIFA World Cup," or any other associated marks are descriptive only, and do not indicate an endorsement of this product or any affiliation between FIFA and Kalshi.
- If Korea Republic is one of the teams to qualify for the Final in the 2026 FIFA World Cup, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If South Africa is one of the teams to qualify for the Final in the 2026 FIFA World Cup, then the market resolves to Yes.