PolymarketClosedCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedThis market is closed and awaiting confirmed resolution.
Awaiting verified resolution
CoinRithm is waiting for provider-confirmed settlement before treating this market as resolved.
Data quality warningStale data
Data as of Jul 15, 2026, 10:50 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-2
Current implied probability
Spain 100%+59.5ptLeader of 48 outcomes
Market quality
24 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$193.3K
Liquidity
$0
Low liquidityBid / Ask
- / 0.1%
7d Change
-38.5 pts
Market data
Updated 11 days ago
StaleApr 27, 26, 2:37 PMJul 20, 26, 12:00 AM
Probability Timeline
Mexico10%
Bosnia and Herzegovina1%
Scotland1%
France60%
Iraq2%
Argentina100%
Morocco9%
Turkiye1%
Germany13%
Belgium5%
Saudi Arabia1%
Jordan1%
Portugal17%
Uzbekistan1%
England0%
New Zealand2%
Algeria2%
Ghana0%
DR Congo1%
Croatia3%
Norway6%
Cape Verde0%
Colombia10%
Spain35%
100%
100%
0%
0%
0%
0%
This market has closed. Mock trading is available on open markets only.
Compare venues· Spain
Ranked by market quality, then liquidity and 24h volume
Also available on Kalshi
FIFA World Cup Final Qualifiers
52.0 ptsClosed
Resolved
Argentina (99%)
+52.0pt99%
99%
4%
+45 more outcomes
49 • Low qualityTight spreadHigh liquidity
Total Vol$11.8M
24h Vol$564.5K
KALSHI
Also available on Limitless
2026 FIFA World Cup: Nation to Reach Final
Closed
50.1%
50.1%
50%
+10 more outcomes
7 • Low qualitySpread unknownLow liquidityThin market
Total Vol$395.2
24h Vol$20
LIMITLESSRules
This market will resolve “Yes” if the listed team reaches the 2026 FIFA World Cup final.
- If at any point it becomes impossible for the listed nation to advance to the 2026 FIFA World Cup final (e.g. they are mathematically eliminated), the associated market will resolve to "No".
- If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled, postponed after August 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET or the 2026 FIFA World Cup final matchup has not been declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “No”.
- The resolution source for this market will be official information from the FIFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
Large trades
$1.8k47.0%KALSHIArgentina — Yes13d ago
KALSHIArgentina — Yes13d ago$7.8k47.0%KALSHIArgentina — Yes13d ago
KALSHIArgentina — Yes13d ago$5.4k55.0%POLYMARKETWill England reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? — Yes0x000c…bcf313d ago
POLYMARKETWill England reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? — Yes0x000c…bcf313d ago$1.4k47.0%KALSHIEngland — No13d ago
KALSHIEngland — No13d ago$4.9k46.0%POLYMARKETWill England reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? — Nopurplegatto13d ago
POLYMARKETWill England reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? — Nopurplegatto13d ago$3.7k93.0%KALSHIFrance — No14d ago
KALSHIFrance — No14d ago$1.3k93.0%KALSHIFrance — No14d ago
KALSHIFrance — No14d ago$1.8k90.0%KALSHISpain — Yes14d ago
KALSHISpain — Yes14d agoVolume trend
$193.3kJul 215d of dataJul 16
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This market will resolve “Yes” if the listed team reaches the 2026 FIFA World Cup final.
- If at any point it becomes impossible for the listed nation to advance to the 2026 FIFA World Cup final (e.g. they are mathematically eliminated), the associated market will resolve to "No".
- If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled, postponed after August 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET or the 2026 FIFA World Cup final matchup has not been declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “No”.
- The resolution source for this market will be official information from the FIFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.