KalshiClosedCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataRoughly calibratedThis market resolved: USA (99%)
Resolved: Jun 20, 2026, 5:18 AM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Winning Outcome
USA
At 7 days out
—
At 24 hours out
69%
ConsensusCurrent implied probabilityUSA 97.1%+30.0ptLeader of 4 outcomes
Market quality
49 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$633.5K
Liquidity
$13.6K
Medium liquidityBid / Ask
99.0% / 100.0%
Spread
1.0 pt
Tight spreadMarket data
Updated 38 days ago
StaleDec 12, 25, 3:00 PMJul 11, 26, 2:00 PM
Probability Timeline
Australia21%
USA99%
Turkiye1%
97.1%
1%
1%
1%
This market has closed. Mock trading is available on open markets only.
Compare venues· USA
Ranked by market quality, then liquidity and 24h volume| Venue | Quality | Probability | vs reference | 24h Vol | Liq | Freshness | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KalshiThis pageBest overall | Low | 99% | — | $633.5K | $13.6K | 38 days ago | |
 Polymarket82% match · verified | Low | 100% | — | $2.1K | $0 | 33 days ago | Open → |
Also available on Polymarket
World Cup Group D Winner
Closed
Resolved
USA (100%)
+30.4pt100%
-2.5pt0%
-8.4pt0%
+2 more outcomes
24 • Low qualitySpread unknownLow liquidity
Total Vol$1.9M
24h Vol$2.1K
POLYMARKETRules
If USA finish first in Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If teams are tied on points, the group winner is determined according to the official FIFA World Cup tiebreak criteria.
- This market and these products have not been endorsed by FIFA.
- Any references to "FIFA", the "FIFA World Cup," or any other associated marks are descriptive only, and do not indicate an endorsement of this product or any affiliation between FIFA and Kalshi.
- If Australia finish first in Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If Paraguay finish first in Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup, then the market resolves to Yes.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
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If USA finish first in Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If teams are tied on points, the group winner is determined according to the official FIFA World Cup tiebreak criteria.
- This market and these products have not been endorsed by FIFA.
- Any references to "FIFA", the "FIFA World Cup," or any other associated marks are descriptive only, and do not indicate an endorsement of this product or any affiliation between FIFA and Kalshi.
- If Australia finish first in Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If Paraguay finish first in Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup, then the market resolves to Yes.