KalshiClosedCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataRoughly calibratedThis market resolved: Rodri (2%)
Resolved: Jul 19, 2026, 10:41 PM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Winning Outcome
Rodri
At 7 days out
—
At 24 hours out
6%
SurpriseData quality warningStale data
Data as of Jul 19, 2026, 10:20 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-2
Settlement provenance
- Standing outcome
- Rodri
- Recorded
- Jul 19, 2026, 10:49 PM
- Observations
- 1
- Revisions
- 0
- Method
- resolution_watch
Current implied probabilityLionel Messi 93%+1.0ptLeader of 67 outcomes
Market quality
49 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$4M
Liquidity
$6.6M
High liquidityBid / Ask
6.0% / 8.0%
Spread
2.0 pt
Moderate spreadMarket data
Updated 8 days ago
StaleMay 12, 26, 10:00 PMJul 31, 26, 2:00 PM
Probability Timeline
Harry Kane6%
Michael Olise4%
Kylian Mbappe8%
Lionel Messi93%
Lamine Yamal1%
Erling Haaland14%
Jude Bellingham30%
Mikel Oyarzabal3%
Tie/Co-Winners1%
Rodri1%
8%
93%
2%
1%
1%
1%
This market has closed. Mock trading is available on open markets only.
Compare venues· Lionel Messi
Ranked by market quality, then liquidity and 24h volume
Also available on Manifold Markets
2026 FIFA World Cup ⚽ Golden Ball (MVP)
Closed
Resolved
Rodri (99.2%)
+91.0pt99.2%
-2.9pt0.2%
-0.6pt0.1%
+7 more outcomes
Community forecast44 forecastersType: multiple choice
MANIFOLD MARKETS
Also available on Polymarket
World Cup: Golden Ball Winner
90.5 ptsClosed
Resolved
Rodri (100%)
+94.6pt100%
-2.2pt0%
-1.9pt0%
+38 more outcomes
35 • Low qualitySpread unknownLow liquidity
Total Vol$17.2M
24h Vol$1.4M
POLYMARKET
Also available on Limitless
World Cup: Golden Ball Winner
Closed
50.4%
50%
50%
+7 more outcomes
7 • Low qualitySpread unknownLow liquidityThin market
Total Vol$1.7K
24h Vol$20.2
LIMITLESSRules
If Harry Kane wins the Golden Ball in the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup, then the market resolves to Yes.
- The Golden Ball is awarded to the player recognized by FIFA as the best overall player of the tournament.
- If multiple participants are announced as co-winners, then Tie/Co-Winners resolves to Yes and all other markets resolve to No.
- This market and these products have not been endorsed by FIFA.
- Any references to "FIFA", the "FIFA World Cup," or any other associated marks are descriptive only, and do not indicate an endorsement of this product or any affiliation between FIFA and Kalshi.
- If Lamine Yamal wins the Golden Ball in the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup, then the market resolves to Yes.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
Large trades
$1.5k99.9%POLYMARKETWill Rodri win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? — Yesubergoy8d ago
POLYMARKETWill Rodri win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? — Yesubergoy8d ago$4.2k99.9%POLYMARKETWill Rodri win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? — YesGTG7918d ago
POLYMARKETWill Rodri win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? — YesGTG7918d ago$3.2k28.0%POLYMARKETWill Rodri win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? — YesBenymokambo8d ago
POLYMARKETWill Rodri win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? — YesBenymokambo8d ago$1.4k40.0%POLYMARKETWill Lionel Messi win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? — YesYawning-Chicken8d ago
POLYMARKETWill Lionel Messi win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? — YesYawning-Chicken8d ago$1.5k99.0%KALSHIRodri — No8d ago
KALSHIRodri — No8d ago$3.5k96.0%KALSHILionel Messi — Yes8d ago
KALSHILionel Messi — Yes8d ago$5.3k96.6%POLYMARKETWill Lionel Messi win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? — YesBLAHBLAHBLAH-2988d ago
POLYMARKETWill Lionel Messi win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? — YesBLAHBLAHBLAH-2988d ago$2.8k98.0%KALSHIRodri — No8d ago
KALSHIRodri — No8d agoVolume trend
$4.0MJul 218d of dataJul 19
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If Harry Kane wins the Golden Ball in the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup, then the market resolves to Yes.
- The Golden Ball is awarded to the player recognized by FIFA as the best overall player of the tournament.
- If multiple participants are announced as co-winners, then Tie/Co-Winners resolves to Yes and all other markets resolve to No.
- This market and these products have not been endorsed by FIFA.
- Any references to "FIFA", the "FIFA World Cup," or any other associated marks are descriptive only, and do not indicate an endorsement of this product or any affiliation between FIFA and Kalshi.
- If Lamine Yamal wins the Golden Ball in the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup, then the market resolves to Yes.