KalshiClosedCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataRoughly calibratedThis market resolved: Max Holloway (70%)
Resolved: Jul 12, 2026, 3:54 AM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Winning Outcome
Max Holloway
At 7 days out
64%
At 24 hours out
69%
ConsensusData quality warningStale data
Data as of Jul 12, 2026, 3:38 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-2
Settlement provenance
- Standing outcome
- Max Holloway
- Recorded
- Jul 12, 2026, 3:59 AM
- Observations
- 1
- Revisions
- 0
- Method
- resolution_watch
Current implied probabilityMax Holloway 69.3%
Market quality
49 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$59.9M
Liquidity
$85.4M
High liquidityBid / Ask
30.0% / 31.0%
Spread
1.0 pt
Tight spreadMarket data
Updated 16 days ago
StaleMay 17, 26, 5:30 PMJul 26, 26, 3:00 AM
Probability Timeline
Conor McGregor31%
Max Holloway70%
30.7%
69.3%
This market has closed. Mock trading is available on open markets only.
Compare venues· Max Holloway
Ranked by market quality, then liquidity and 24h volume| Venue | Quality | Probability | vs reference | 24h Vol | Liq | Freshness | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KalshiThis pageBest overall | Low | 70% | — | $59.9M | $85.4M | 16 days ago | |
 Manifold Markets90% match · verified | — | 99% | — | — | — | 15 days ago | Open → |
Also available on Manifold Markets
Will Conor McGregor beat Max Holloway at UFC 329?
Closed
Resolved
No (99.1%)
99.1%
0.9%
Community forecast53 forecastersType: binary
MANIFOLD MARKETSRules
If Conor McGregor wins the Conor McGregor vs Max Holloway professional MMA fight originally scheduled for Jul 11, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- The following market refers to the Conor McGregor vs Max Holloway professional MMA fight originally scheduled for Jul 11, 2026.
- If this fight is postponed or delayed, the market will remain open and close after the rescheduled fight has finished (within two weeks).
- If the fight is declared a tie or no contest, the market will resolve to 50/50 for both fighters.
- If the fight is cancelled or rescheduled to over two weeks away, the market will resolve to a fair price in accordance with the rules.
- This market and these products have not been endorsed by Zuffa LLC, d/b/a Ultimate Fighting Championship, UFC.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
Large trades
$1.2k90.0%KALSHIConor McGregor — No16d ago
KALSHIConor McGregor — No16d ago$2.9k90.0%KALSHIConor McGregor — No16d ago
KALSHIConor McGregor — No16d ago$1.8k90.0%KALSHIConor McGregor — No16d ago
KALSHIConor McGregor — No16d ago$1.7k83.0%KALSHIConor McGregor — No16d ago
KALSHIConor McGregor — No16d ago$4.2k85.0%KALSHIConor McGregor — No16d ago
KALSHIConor McGregor — No16d ago$2.5k80.0%KALSHIConor McGregor — No16d ago
KALSHIConor McGregor — No16d ago$1.8k22.0%KALSHIConor McGregor — Yes16d ago
KALSHIConor McGregor — Yes16d ago$1.5k80.0%KALSHIConor McGregor — No16d ago
KALSHIConor McGregor — No16d agoVolume trend
$59.9MJul 211d of dataJul 12
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If Conor McGregor wins the Conor McGregor vs Max Holloway professional MMA fight originally scheduled for Jul 11, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- The following market refers to the Conor McGregor vs Max Holloway professional MMA fight originally scheduled for Jul 11, 2026.
- If this fight is postponed or delayed, the market will remain open and close after the rescheduled fight has finished (within two weeks).
- If the fight is declared a tie or no contest, the market will resolve to 50/50 for both fighters.
- If the fight is cancelled or rescheduled to over two weeks away, the market will resolve to a fair price in accordance with the rules.
- This market and these products have not been endorsed by Zuffa LLC, d/b/a Ultimate Fighting Championship, UFC.