KalshiClosedCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedThis market resolved: 84° or above (29%)
Limited resolution evidence
CoinRithm can show the recorded outcome, but not every settlement field is provider-verified.
Probability Timeline
84° or above29%
85° or above1%
82° or above0%
83° or above99%
79° or above0%
81° or above99%
80° or above0%
76° or above0%
77° or above0%
78° or above0%
82° or aboveLost
Before close: 99% ·
83° or aboveLost
Before close: 98% ·
79° or aboveLost
Before close: 99% ·
80° or aboveLost
Before close: 99% ·
76° or aboveLost
Before close: 99% ·
77° or aboveLost
Before close: 99% ·
78° or aboveLost
Before close: 99% ·
81° or aboveLost
Before close: 97% ·
84° or aboveWon
Before close: 42% ·
85° or aboveLost
Before close: 2% ·
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Highest temperature in Miami on Sep 28, 2026?
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KalshiHighest temperature in Miami on Sep 29, 2026?
KalshiLowest temperature in Miami on Sep 29, 2026?
KalshiHighest temperature in Miami on September 29?
PolymarketLowest temperature in Miami on September 29?
PolymarketRules
If the temperature recorded at Miami, FL for Sep 28, 2026 at 11 AM EDT as reported by Synoptic Data, is above 75.99°, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:Synoptic Data
- The official final value for this market is determined strictly by the temperature reported by Synoptic Data, calculated in accordance with the Kalshi Weather Index Methodology.
- Alternative sources—such as NWS Climatological Reports or Google Weather—may serve as references, but are not authoritative and will not be used for market resolution.
- If the temperature recorded at Miami, FL for Sep 28, 2026 at 11 AM EDT as reported by Synoptic Data, is above 76.99°, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the temperature recorded at Miami, FL for Sep 28, 2026 at 11 AM EDT as reported by Synoptic Data, is above 77.99°, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the temperature recorded at Miami, FL for Sep 28, 2026 at 11 AM EDT as reported by Synoptic Data, is above 78.99°, then the market resolves to Yes.