KalshiClosedCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedThis market resolved: 82° or above (99%)
Resolved: Oct 19, 2026, 6:10 PM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Data quality warningStale data
Data as of Oct 19, 2026, 4:57 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Probability Timeline
84° or above88%
85° or above3%
86° or above3%
82° or above98%
80° or above99%
81° or above99%
83° or above96%
87° or above0%
78° or above99%
79° or above0%
82° or aboveWon
80° or aboveLost
81° or aboveLost
83° or aboveLost
78° or aboveLost
84° or aboveLost
85° or aboveLost
86° or aboveLost
87° or aboveLost
79° or aboveLost
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Highest temperature in Miami on Oct 19, 2026?
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KalshiLowest temperature in Miami on Oct 19, 2026?
KalshiLowest temperature in Miami on Oct 20, 2026?
KalshiHighest temperature in Miami on October 20?
PolymarketHighest temperature in Miami on October 21?
PolymarketRules
If the temperature recorded at Miami, FL for Oct 19, 2026 at 1 PM EDT as reported by Synoptic Data, is above 81.99°, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:Synoptic Data
- The official final value for this market is determined strictly by the temperature reported by Synoptic Data, calculated in accordance with the Kalshi Weather Index Methodology. Alternative sources—such as NWS Climatological Reports or Google Weather—may serve as references, but are not authoritative and will not be used for market resolution.
Rules for each outcome
- 82° or above
- If the temperature recorded at Miami, FL for Oct 19, 2026 at 1 PM EDT as reported by Synoptic Data, is above 81.99°, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 80° or above
- If the temperature recorded at Miami, FL for Oct 19, 2026 at 1 PM EDT as reported by Synoptic Data, is above 79.99°, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 81° or above
- If the temperature recorded at Miami, FL for Oct 19, 2026 at 1 PM EDT as reported by Synoptic Data, is above 80.99°, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 83° or above
- If the temperature recorded at Miami, FL for Oct 19, 2026 at 1 PM EDT as reported by Synoptic Data, is above 82.99°, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 78° or above
- If the temperature recorded at Miami, FL for Oct 19, 2026 at 1 PM EDT as reported by Synoptic Data, is above 77.99°, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 84° or above
- If the temperature recorded at Miami, FL for Oct 19, 2026 at 1 PM EDT as reported by Synoptic Data, is above 83.99°, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 85° or above
- If the temperature recorded at Miami, FL for Oct 19, 2026 at 1 PM EDT as reported by Synoptic Data, is above 84.99°, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 86° or above
- If the temperature recorded at Miami, FL for Oct 19, 2026 at 1 PM EDT as reported by Synoptic Data, is above 85.99°, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 87° or above
- If the temperature recorded at Miami, FL for Oct 19, 2026 at 1 PM EDT as reported by Synoptic Data, is above 86.99°, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 79° or above
- If the temperature recorded at Miami, FL for Oct 19, 2026 at 1 PM EDT as reported by Synoptic Data, is above 78.99°, then the market resolves to Yes.