Will it rain in NYC on Jul 4, 2026?

One-Off18h

KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% fee

Current implied probability

Yes 89%

Market quality

63 / 100

Medium quality

24h Volume

$689.3

Liquidity

$634.8

Low liquidity

Bid / Ask

88.0% / 89.0%

Spread

1.1%

Tight spread

Market data

Updated 3 minutes ago

Jul 3, 26, 2:00 PMJul 5, 26, 3:59 AM

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice

Selected outcome

Yes89%

Stake (USDT)

Rules

If the number of inches of precipitation recorded at Central Park, New York on July 04, 2026 is strictly greater than 0, then the market resolves to Yes.

The Payout Criterion only encompasses Expiration Values that are strictly greater than inches.
If the Expiration Value is T (when the target is 0) for Trace or R for Record (where the record set is strictly greater than ), then the market resolves to Yes.
This market will close and expire the sooner of the first 10:00 AM ET following the release of data for July 04, 2026 or July 11, 2026.
If the Climatological Report is still inconclusive on July 11, 2026, Kalshi will reference the columns titled "Weather" and "1 Hour Precip (in)" in the NWS time series (https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=knyc) for determination via rule 7.2 of the rulebook.

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Rules

If the number of inches of precipitation recorded at Central Park, New York on July 04, 2026 is strictly greater than 0, then the market resolves to Yes.

The Payout Criterion only encompasses Expiration Values that are strictly greater than inches.
If the Expiration Value is T (when the target is 0) for Trace or R for Record (where the record set is strictly greater than ), then the market resolves to Yes.
This market will close and expire the sooner of the first 10:00 AM ET following the release of data for July 04, 2026 or July 11, 2026.
If the Climatological Report is still inconclusive on July 11, 2026, Kalshi will reference the columns titled "Weather" and "1 Hour Precip (in)" in the NWS time series (https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=knyc) for determination via rule 7.2 of the rulebook.

Will it rain in NYC on Jul 4, 2026?

One-Off18h

KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% fee

Current implied probability

Yes 89%

Market quality

63 / 100

Medium quality

24h Volume

$689.3

Liquidity

$634.8

Low liquidity

Bid / Ask

88.0% / 89.0%

Spread

1.1%

Tight spread

Market data

Updated 3 minutes ago

Jul 3, 26, 2:00 PMJul 5, 26, 3:59 AM

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice

Selected outcome

Yes89%

Stake (USDT)

Rules

If the number of inches of precipitation recorded at Central Park, New York on July 04, 2026 is strictly greater than 0, then the market resolves to Yes.

The Payout Criterion only encompasses Expiration Values that are strictly greater than inches.
If the Expiration Value is T (when the target is 0) for Trace or R for Record (where the record set is strictly greater than ), then the market resolves to Yes.
This market will close and expire the sooner of the first 10:00 AM ET following the release of data for July 04, 2026 or July 11, 2026.
If the Climatological Report is still inconclusive on July 11, 2026, Kalshi will reference the columns titled "Weather" and "1 Hour Precip (in)" in the NWS time series (https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=knyc) for determination via rule 7.2 of the rulebook.

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Rules

If the number of inches of precipitation recorded at Central Park, New York on July 04, 2026 is strictly greater than 0, then the market resolves to Yes.

The Payout Criterion only encompasses Expiration Values that are strictly greater than inches.
If the Expiration Value is T (when the target is 0) for Trace or R for Record (where the record set is strictly greater than ), then the market resolves to Yes.
This market will close and expire the sooner of the first 10:00 AM ET following the release of data for July 04, 2026 or July 11, 2026.
If the Climatological Report is still inconclusive on July 11, 2026, Kalshi will reference the columns titled "Weather" and "1 Hour Precip (in)" in the NWS time series (https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=knyc) for determination via rule 7.2 of the rulebook.