KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
Z.ai 79.2%Leader of 20 outcomes
Market quality
57 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$39.5K
Liquidity
$38.2K
High liquidityMarket data
Updated 23 minutes ago
Aug 21, 26, 5:00 PMOct 1, 26, 3:59 AM
Trends
Rules
If Z.ai is confirmed as the developer of the Ox Alpha stealth AI model after Issuance and before Oct 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:The New York Timesthe Associated PressBloomberg NewsReutersAxiosPoliticoSemaforThe InformationThe Washington PostThe Wall Street JournalABCCBSCNNFox NewsMSNBCNBCBBCThe GuardianABC News AustraliaSouth China Morning PostCBCThe Verge
- Confirmation requires that the named company has itself publicly stated, or its official channels have confirmed, that it built or operates the model listed on OpenRouter as Ox Alpha.
- Relaunching or renaming the same model under the company's own brand counts.
- A company is identified by its corporate identity, not its product brand.
- Independent technical analysis, including tokenizer, benchmark or encoder fingerprinting, does not count however confident, unless the named company itself confirms.
- the named outcome is the outcome if no company is confirmed as described above, or the company so confirmed is not among those named in this event.
Open markets
ExchangeKALSHIBTC price on Aug 21, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $76,500 or above+96.0pt99%
- $74,500 or above+85.0pt99%
- $76,000 or above+94.0pt99%
+97 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $8M
- 24h Vol
- $5M
POLYMARKETBitcoin above ___ on August 22?
- 52,000+0.3pt100%
- 54,000+0.1pt100%
- 56,000+0.1pt100%
+8 more outcomes
KALSHIBitcoin price at the end of 2026
- 75,000 to 79,999.99+0.9pt12.2%
- 80,000 to 84,999.99+3.7pt11.2%
- 70,000 to 74,999.99-1.1pt11.2%
+25 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIETH price on Aug 21, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $2,370 or above+68.0pt99%
- $2,290 or above+33.0pt99%
- $2,250 or above+14.0pt99%
+47 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIHow high will ETH get in August?
- Above $2,000.0099%
- Above $2,250.0097%
- Above $2,500.00+26.0pt67%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $449.6K
POLYMARKETWill Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- ↑$1.1T+3.6pt100%
- ↑$1.0T+2.4pt100%
- ↑$1.25T-1.1pt97%
+10 more outcomes
- XRP price at Aug 21, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- Bitcoin above ___ on August 23?
- Anthropic IPO by __?
- Bitcoin Up or Down on August 22?
- How low will BTC get in August?
- BTC price range on Aug 21, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- ETH price range on Aug 21, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- Bitcoin above ___ on August 27?
- Ethereum above ___ on August 22?
- Bitcoin above ___ on August 24?
- SOL price on Aug 21, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- Bitcoin above ___ on August 26?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Which company is behind Ox Alpha??
- Kalshi prices Z.ai at 79% as of August 21, 2026.
- When does Which company is behind Ox Alpha? resolve?
- Which company is behind Ox Alpha? is scheduled to resolve on October 1, 2026.
- How is Which company is behind Ox Alpha? settled?
- Kalshi settles this market as follows: If Z.ai is confirmed as the developer of the Ox Alpha stealth AI model after Issuance and before Oct 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.