Current implied probability
81° to 82° 1%Leader of 6 outcomes
Market quality
65 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$12.5K
Liquidity
$8.9K
Medium liquidityBid / Ask
- / 1.0%
Market data
Updated 17 minutes ago
Jul 13, 26, 2:00 PMJul 15, 26, 5:00 AM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
81° to 82°1%
Compare venues· 79° to 80°
Ranked by market quality, then liquidity and 24h volume| Venue | Quality | Probability | vs reference | 24h Vol | Liq | Freshness | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 PolymarketBest overall84% match · auto | Medium | 76% | — | $6.7K | $59.7K | 17 minutes ago | Open → |
 KalshiThis pageMost active | Medium | 81% | — | $12.5K | $8.9K | 17 minutes ago |
Also available on Polymarket
Lowest temperature in Miami on July 14?
48.0%1h
+48.0%76%
+6.0%28%
-0.8%4%
+8 more outcomes
73 • Medium qualityWide spreadHigh liquidityNear resolution
Total Vol$7.3K
24h Vol$6.7K
POLYMARKETRules
If the minimum temperature recorded at Miami for Jul 14, 2026, is less than 75° fahrenheit according to the National Weather Service's Climatological Report (Daily), then the market resolves to Yes.
- Data for CLIMIA can be found by clicking the following URL: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/Climate?wfo=mfl, navigating to the "Observed Weather" tab, and choosing the location "Miami, FL" with Daily Climate Report selected.
- Please use the latest version of the data for the desired date, keeping in mind that different cities update their reports at different frequencies.
- Not all weather data is the same.
- While checking a source like AccuWeather or Google Weather may help guide your decision, the official and final value used to determine this market is the maximum/minimum temperature as reported by the corresponding NWS Climatological Report (Daily) linked in the rules above.
- Preliminary NWS reporting and measurement methods may be subject to underlying rounding and conversion nuances.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
Volume trend
$12.5kJul 132d of dataJul 14
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If the minimum temperature recorded at Miami for Jul 14, 2026, is less than 75° fahrenheit according to the National Weather Service's Climatological Report (Daily), then the market resolves to Yes.
- Data for CLIMIA can be found by clicking the following URL: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/Climate?wfo=mfl, navigating to the "Observed Weather" tab, and choosing the location "Miami, FL" with Daily Climate Report selected.
- Please use the latest version of the data for the desired date, keeping in mind that different cities update their reports at different frequencies.
- Not all weather data is the same.
- While checking a source like AccuWeather or Google Weather may help guide your decision, the official and final value used to determine this market is the maximum/minimum temperature as reported by the corresponding NWS Climatological Report (Daily) linked in the rules above.
- Preliminary NWS reporting and measurement methods may be subject to underlying rounding and conversion nuances.