Current implied probability
75° or below 1%Leader of 6 outcomes
Market quality
36 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$2.9K
Liquidity
$2.3K
Low liquidityBid / Ask
1.0% / 2.0%
Spread
100.0%
Wide spreadMarket data
Updated 4 minutes ago
Jul 12, 26, 2:00 PMJul 14, 26, 5:00 AM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
75° or below1%
Compare venues· 80° to 81°
Ranked by market quality, then liquidity and 24h volume| Venue | Quality | Probability | vs reference | 24h Vol | Liq | Freshness | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 PolymarketBest overall84% match · auto | Medium | 34% | — | $2.2K | $21K | 9 minutes ago | Open → |
 KalshiThis pageMost active | Low | 40% | — | $2.9K | $2.3K | 4 minutes ago |
Also available on Polymarket
Lowest temperature in Miami on July 13?
11h
34%
32%
25%
+8 more outcomes
52 • Medium qualityWide spreadMedium liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$2.2K
24h Vol$2.2K
POLYMARKETRules
If the minimum temperature recorded at Miami for Jul 13, 2026, is less than 76° fahrenheit according to the National Weather Service's Climatological Report (Daily), then the market resolves to Yes.
- Data for CLIMIA can be found by clicking the following URL: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/Climate?wfo=mfl, navigating to the "Observed Weather" tab, and choosing the location "Miami, FL" with Daily Climate Report selected.
- Please use the latest version of the data for the desired date, keeping in mind that different cities update their reports at different frequencies.
- Not all weather data is the same.
- While checking a source like AccuWeather or Google Weather may help guide your decision, the official and final value used to determine this market is the maximum/minimum temperature as reported by the corresponding NWS Climatological Report (Daily) linked in the rules above.
- Preliminary NWS reporting and measurement methods may be subject to underlying rounding and conversion nuances.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
Volume trend
$2.9kJul 122d of dataJul 13
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If the minimum temperature recorded at Miami for Jul 13, 2026, is less than 76° fahrenheit according to the National Weather Service's Climatological Report (Daily), then the market resolves to Yes.
- Data for CLIMIA can be found by clicking the following URL: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/Climate?wfo=mfl, navigating to the "Observed Weather" tab, and choosing the location "Miami, FL" with Daily Climate Report selected.
- Please use the latest version of the data for the desired date, keeping in mind that different cities update their reports at different frequencies.
- Not all weather data is the same.
- While checking a source like AccuWeather or Google Weather may help guide your decision, the official and final value used to determine this market is the maximum/minimum temperature as reported by the corresponding NWS Climatological Report (Daily) linked in the rules above.
- Preliminary NWS reporting and measurement methods may be subject to underlying rounding and conversion nuances.