KalshiClosedCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataRoughly calibratedThis market resolved: 7,405 or above (36%)
Resolved: Jul 27, 2026, 3:02 PM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Winning Outcome
7,405 or above
At 7 days out
—
At 24 hours out
—
Data quality warningStale data
Data as of Jul 27, 2026, 2:40 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-3
Settlement provenance
- Standing outcome
- 7,405 or above
- Recorded
- Jul 27, 2026, 3:12 PM
- Observations
- 1
- Revisions
- 0
- Method
- resolution_watch
Current implied probability7,320 or above 99%Leader of 60 outcomes
Market quality
39 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$116.5K
Liquidity
$93.7K
High liquidityBid / Ask
- / 1.0%
Market data
Updated 17 hours ago
StaleJul 24, 26, 8:00 PMJul 27, 26, 3:00 PM
Probability Timeline
7,465 or above1%
7,470 or above66%
7,460 or above1%
7,385 or above80%
7,405 or above36%
7,410 or above43%
7,455 or above1%
7,400 or above58%
7,420 or above18%
7,495 or above10%
7,395 or above62%
7,450 or above1%
7,475 or above67%
7,435 or above5%
7,545 or above1%
7,425 or above6%
7,430 or above4%
7,390 or above73%
7,445 or above1%
7,440 or above2%
7,415 or above25%
7,480 or above47%
7,540 or above2%
7,375 or above90%
7,535 or above2%
7,530 or above1%
7,525 or above1%
7,520 or above2%
7,320 or above99%
7,325 or above99%
7,360 or above97%
7,265 or above99%
7,285 or above99%
7,315 or above99%
7,485 or above47%
7,500 or above6%
7,490 or above24%
7,510 or above3%
7,505 or above4%
7,515 or above2%
7,370 or above93%
7,380 or above85%
7,365 or above98%
7,250 or above0%
7,255 or above0%
7,260 or above0%
7,270 or above0%
7,275 or above0%
7,280 or above0%
7,290 or above0%
7,295 or above0%
7,300 or above0%
7,305 or above0%
7,310 or above0%
7,330 or above0%
7,335 or above0%
7,340 or above0%
7,345 or above0%
7,350 or above0%
7,355 or above0%
1%
1%
1%
80%
36%
43%
This market has closed. Mock trading is available on open markets only.
Volume trend
$116.5kJul 253d of dataJul 27
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If the S&P 500 index value on Jul 27, 2026 at 11am EDT is above 7249.9999, then the market resolves to Yes.
- The market will close on July 27, 2026.
- The market will expire at the sooner of the first release of the data, or one week after July 27, 2026.
- Pursuant to the Kalshi Rulebook, the Exchange has modified the Source Agency and Underlying for indices markets.
- See the rules for more information.
- If the S&P 500 index value on Jul 27, 2026 at 11am EDT is above 7254.9999, then the market resolves to Yes.