This market resolved: 68° or below (99%)
Resolved: Jul 12, 2026, 11:06 AM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Winning Outcome
68° or below
At 7 days out
—
At 24 hours out
20%
SurpriseSettlement provenance
- Standing outcome
- 68° or below
- Recorded
- Jul 12, 2026, 11:59 AM
- Observations
- 1
- Revisions
- 0
- Method
- resolution_watch
Current implied probability68° or below 99%+72.0%Leader of 6 outcomes
Market quality
100 / 100
High quality24h Volume
$30.5K
Liquidity
$25.2K
High liquidityBid / Ask
99.0% / 100.0%
Spread
1.0%
Tight spreadMarket data
Updated 8 hours ago
StaleJul 10, 26, 2:00 PMJul 12, 26, 8:00 AM
Probability Timeline
68° or below76%
69° to 70°16%
71° to 72°1%
73° to 74°1%
75° to 76°4%
77° or above2%
99%
1%
1%
1%
1%
1%
This market has closed. Mock trading is available on open markets only.
Volume trend
$30.5kJul 103d of dataJul 12
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If the maximum temperature recorded at San Francisco for Jul 11, 2026, is less than 69° fahrenheit according to the National Weather Service's Climatological Report (Daily), then the market resolves to Yes.
- Data for CLISFO can be found by clicking the following URL: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/Climate?wfo=mtr, navigating to the "Observed Weather" tab, and choosing the location "San Francisco Airport" with Daily Climate Report selected.
- Please use the latest version of the data for the desired date, keeping in mind that different cities update their reports at different frequencies.
- Not all weather data is the same.
- While checking a source like AccuWeather or Google Weather may help guide your decision, the official and final value used to determine this market is the maximum/minimum temperature as reported by the corresponding NWS Climatological Report (Daily) linked in the rules above.
- Preliminary NWS reporting and measurement methods may be subject to underlying rounding and conversion nuances.