Current implied probability
72° to 73° 56%Leader of 6 outcomes
Market quality
61 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$10.4K
Liquidity
$6K
Medium liquidityBid / Ask
51.0% / 57.0%
Spread
11.8%
Wide spreadMarket data
Updated 1 minute ago
Jul 3, 26, 2:00 PMJul 5, 26, 8:00 AM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
72° to 73°56%
Also available on Polymarket
Highest temperature in Seattle on July 4?
14.5%1h
+2.0%43%
+14.5%38%
-4.5%13%
+8 more outcomes
61 • Medium qualityWide spreadMedium liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$18.6K
24h Vol$10.6K
POLYMARKETRules
If the maximum temperature recorded at Seattle for Jul 4, 2026, is less than 72° fahrenheit according to the National Weather Service's Climatological Report (Daily), then the market resolves to Yes.
- Data for CLISEA can be found by clicking the following URL: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/climate?wfo=sew, navigating to the "Observed Weather" tab, and choosing the location "Seattle-Tacoma, WA" with Daily Climate Report selected.
- Please use the latest version of the data for the desired date, keeping in mind that different cities update their reports at different frequencies.
- Not all weather data is the same.
- While checking a source like AccuWeather or Google Weather may help guide your decision, the official and final value used to determine this market is the maximum/minimum temperature as reported by the corresponding NWS Climatological Report (Daily) linked in the rules above.
- Preliminary NWS reporting and measurement methods may be subject to underlying rounding and conversion nuances.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
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If the maximum temperature recorded at Seattle for Jul 4, 2026, is less than 72° fahrenheit according to the National Weather Service's Climatological Report (Daily), then the market resolves to Yes.
- Data for CLISEA can be found by clicking the following URL: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/climate?wfo=sew, navigating to the "Observed Weather" tab, and choosing the location "Seattle-Tacoma, WA" with Daily Climate Report selected.
- Please use the latest version of the data for the desired date, keeping in mind that different cities update their reports at different frequencies.
- Not all weather data is the same.
- While checking a source like AccuWeather or Google Weather may help guide your decision, the official and final value used to determine this market is the maximum/minimum temperature as reported by the corresponding NWS Climatological Report (Daily) linked in the rules above.
- Preliminary NWS reporting and measurement methods may be subject to underlying rounding and conversion nuances.