Current implied probability
Phoenix 97%-1.0%Leader of 20 outcomes
Market quality
100 / 100
High quality24h Volume
$56.7K
Liquidity
$76.2K
High liquidityBid / Ask
96.0% / 97.0%
Spread
1.0%
Tight spreadMarket data
Updated 4 minutes ago
Jun 25, 26, 7:22 PMJul 5, 26, 3:59 AM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Phoenix97%
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If the maximum temperature recorded at New York City for Jul 4, 2026, is greater than 100°F according to the Weather Company, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Not all weather data is the same.
- While checking a source like AccuWeather or Google Weather may help guide your decision, the official and final value used to determine this market is the maximum/minimum temperature as reported by the Weather Company.
- If the maximum temperature recorded at Chicago for Jul 4, 2026, is greater than 100°F according to the Weather Company, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the maximum temperature recorded at Austin for Jul 4, 2026, is greater than 100°F according to the Weather Company, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the maximum temperature recorded at Miami for Jul 4, 2026, is greater than 100°F according to the Weather Company, then the market resolves to Yes.