Current implied probability
100° to 101° 2%Leader of 6 outcomes
Market quality
61 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$28.6K
Liquidity
$22K
Medium liquidityBid / Ask
3.0% / 4.0%
Spread
33.3%
Wide spreadMarket data
Updated 4 minutes ago
Jul 3, 26, 2:00 PMJul 5, 26, 4:59 AM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
100° to 101°2%
Also available on Polymarket
Highest temperature in NYC on July 5?
1d
35%
31%
16%
+8 more outcomes
52 • Medium qualityWide spreadMedium liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$4.1K
24h Vol$4.1K
POLYMARKETRules
If the highest temperature recorded in Central Park, New York for July 04, 2026 as reported by the National Weather Service's Climatological Report (Daily), is less than 98°, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Not all weather data is the same.
- While checking a source like AccuWeather or Google Weather may help guide your decision, the official and final value used to determine this market is the highest temperature as reported by the corresponding NWS Climatological Report (Daily) linked in the rules above.
- Preliminary NWS reporting and measurement methods may be subject to underlying rounding and conversion nuances.
- Traders should exercise caution when interpreting preliminary NWS data.
- If the highest temperature recorded in Central Park, New York for July 04, 2026 as reported by the National Weather Service's Climatological Report (Daily), is between 98-99°, then the market resolves to Yes.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
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If the highest temperature recorded in Central Park, New York for July 04, 2026 as reported by the National Weather Service's Climatological Report (Daily), is less than 98°, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Not all weather data is the same.
- While checking a source like AccuWeather or Google Weather may help guide your decision, the official and final value used to determine this market is the highest temperature as reported by the corresponding NWS Climatological Report (Daily) linked in the rules above.
- Preliminary NWS reporting and measurement methods may be subject to underlying rounding and conversion nuances.
- Traders should exercise caution when interpreting preliminary NWS data.
- If the highest temperature recorded in Central Park, New York for July 04, 2026 as reported by the National Weather Service's Climatological Report (Daily), is between 98-99°, then the market resolves to Yes.