Current implied probability
84° to 85° 10%-20.0%Leader of 6 outcomes
Market quality
61 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$11.2K
Liquidity
$8.7K
Medium liquidityBid / Ask
11.0% / 13.0%
Spread
18.2%
Wide spreadMarket data
Updated 4 minutes ago
Jul 4, 26, 2:00 PMJul 6, 26, 6:00 AM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
84° to 85°10%
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If the maximum temperature recorded at Minneapolis for Jul 5, 2026, is less than 82° fahrenheit according to the National Weather Service's Climatological Report (Daily), then the market resolves to Yes.
- Data for CLIMSP can be found by clicking the following URL: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/climate?wfo=mpx, navigating to the "Observed Weather" tab, and choosing the location "Minneapolis/St Paul, MN" with Daily Climate Report selected.
- Please use the latest version of the data for the desired date, keeping in mind that different cities update their reports at different frequencies.
- Not all weather data is the same.
- While checking a source like AccuWeather or Google Weather may help guide your decision, the official and final value used to determine this market is the maximum/minimum temperature as reported by the corresponding NWS Climatological Report (Daily) linked in the rules above.
- Preliminary NWS reporting and measurement methods may be subject to underlying rounding and conversion nuances.