KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataRoughly calibratedCurrent implied probability96° or below 46%Leader of 6 outcomes
Market quality
64 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$5.9K
Liquidity
$5K
Medium liquidityBid / Ask
50.0% / 52.0%
Spread
2.0 pt
Moderate spreadMarket data
Updated 18 minutes ago
Jul 28, 26, 2:00 PMJul 30, 26, 6:00 AM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
96° or below51%
Compare venues· 96° or below
Ranked by market quality, then liquidity and 24h volume| Venue | Quality | Probability | vs reference | 24h Vol | Liq | Freshness | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 PolymarketBest overall84% match · auto | Medium | 50% | — | $6K | $23.1K | 18 minutes ago | Open → |
| KalshiThis page | Medium | 51% | — | $5.9K | $5K | 18 minutes ago |
Also available on Polymarket
Highest temperature in Houston on July 29?
6.5 pts4h
+6.5pt49%
30.4%
-11.5pt12.8%
+8 more outcomes
73 • Medium qualityModerate spreadMedium liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$9.4K
24h Vol$6K
POLYMARKETRules
If the maximum temperature recorded at Houston for Jul 29, 2026, is less than 97° fahrenheit according to the National Weather Service's Climatological Report (Daily), then the market resolves to Yes.
- Data for CLIHOU can be found by clicking the following URL: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/Climate?wfo=hgx, navigating to the "Observed Weather" tab, and choosing the location "Houston-Hobby, TX" with Daily Climate Report selected.
- Please use the latest version of the data for the desired date, keeping in mind that different cities update their reports at different frequencies.
- Not all weather data is the same.
- While checking a source like AccuWeather or Google Weather may help guide your decision, the official and final value used to determine this market is the maximum/minimum temperature as reported by the corresponding NWS Climatological Report (Daily) linked in the rules above.
- Preliminary NWS reporting and measurement methods may be subject to underlying rounding and conversion nuances.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
Volume trend
$5.9kJul 282d of dataJul 29
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If the maximum temperature recorded at Houston for Jul 29, 2026, is less than 97° fahrenheit according to the National Weather Service's Climatological Report (Daily), then the market resolves to Yes.
- Data for CLIHOU can be found by clicking the following URL: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/Climate?wfo=hgx, navigating to the "Observed Weather" tab, and choosing the location "Houston-Hobby, TX" with Daily Climate Report selected.
- Please use the latest version of the data for the desired date, keeping in mind that different cities update their reports at different frequencies.
- Not all weather data is the same.
- While checking a source like AccuWeather or Google Weather may help guide your decision, the official and final value used to determine this market is the maximum/minimum temperature as reported by the corresponding NWS Climatological Report (Daily) linked in the rules above.
- Preliminary NWS reporting and measurement methods may be subject to underlying rounding and conversion nuances.