Current implied probability
98° to 99° 20%Leader of 6 outcomes
Market quality
77 / 100
High quality24h Volume
$25.7K
Liquidity
$18.1K
Medium liquidityBid / Ask
19.0% / 20.0%
Spread
5.3%
Moderate spreadMarket data
Updated 20 minutes ago
Jul 13, 26, 2:00 PMJul 15, 26, 5:59 AM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
98° to 99°20%
Compare venues· 96° to 97°
Ranked by market quality, then liquidity and 24h volume| Venue | Quality | Probability | vs reference | 24h Vol | Liq | Freshness | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 KalshiThis pageBest overall | High | 56% | — | $25.7K | $18.1K | 20 minutes ago | |
 Polymarket84% match · auto | Medium | 51% | — | $12.3K | $44.9K | 20 minutes ago | Open → |
Also available on Polymarket
Highest temperature in Chicago on July 14?
0.4%2h
+16.5%51%
+6.5%20%
-15.5%20%
+8 more outcomes
73 • Medium qualityWide spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$15.7K
24h Vol$12.3K
POLYMARKETRules
If the highest temperature recorded at Chicago Midway, IL for July 14, 2026, is less than 94° according to the National Weather Service's Climatological Report (Daily), then the market resolves to Yes.
- Not all weather data is the same.
- While checking a source like AccuWeather or Google Weather may help guide your decision, the official and final value used to determine this market is the highest temperature as reported by the corresponding NWS Climatological Report (Daily) linked in the rules above.
- Preliminary NWS reporting and measurement methods may be subject to underlying rounding and conversion nuances.
- Traders should exercise caution when interpreting preliminary NWS data.
- If the highest temperature recorded at Chicago Midway, IL for July 14, 2026, is between 94-95° according to the National Weather Service's Climatological Report (Daily), then the market resolves to Yes.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
Volume trend
$25.7kJul 132d of dataJul 14
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If the highest temperature recorded at Chicago Midway, IL for July 14, 2026, is less than 94° according to the National Weather Service's Climatological Report (Daily), then the market resolves to Yes.
- Not all weather data is the same.
- While checking a source like AccuWeather or Google Weather may help guide your decision, the official and final value used to determine this market is the highest temperature as reported by the corresponding NWS Climatological Report (Daily) linked in the rules above.
- Preliminary NWS reporting and measurement methods may be subject to underlying rounding and conversion nuances.
- Traders should exercise caution when interpreting preliminary NWS data.
- If the highest temperature recorded at Chicago Midway, IL for July 14, 2026, is between 94-95° according to the National Weather Service's Climatological Report (Daily), then the market resolves to Yes.