Data quality warningSource data degradedStale data
Data as of Sep 9, 2026, 12:55 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-3
Current implied probability
Aryna Sabalenka 63.3%
Market quality
36 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$15.2
Liquidity
—
Liquidity unknownBid / Ask
62.0% / 64.0%
Spread
2.0 pt
Tight spreadMarket data
Updated 2 hours ago
StaleSep 10, 26, 11:00 PM UTCSep 11, 26, 11:00 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
US Open WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula
PolymarketAryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula: Exact Match Score
KalshiAryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula
LimitlessAryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula: Set 1 Winner
KalshiAryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula: Set 2 Winner
KalshiAryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula: 22 or more total games?
LimitlessRules
the named outcome vs the named outcome
- This market resolves to Yes if the named outcome wins the tennis match between the named outcome and the named outcome originally scheduled for September 10, 2026 at 7:00 PM ET.
- Otherwise, it will resolve to No. The Underlying is the official result of the specified sporting event.
- Source Agencies, in order, are the tournament governing body (ATP, WTA, ITF), ESPN, Fox Sports, and the broadcast partner of the event.
- If the Expiration Value cannot be determined on the Expiration Date (including because the event is cancelled or a player forfeits, withdraws, or is disqualified), the Exchange may determine payouts pursuant to the Market Outcome Review Process.
- View the [full rules](https://assets.gemini.com/predictions/terms_and_conditions/Sporting_Win_Lose_Event_2_Terms_and_Conditions_f232ede2-4e1a-4126-a1d7-89e0fa2225e2.pdf)
Prediction Source Comparison
Open markets
SportsKALSHIUS Open Men's Singles Winner
- Alexander Zverev+17.0pt44%
- Ben Shelton+28.0pt37%
- Frances Tiafoe+5.0pt9%
+45 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $31.1M
- 24h Vol
- $3.3M
POLYMARKETUEFA Champions League: 2027 Champion
- Barcelona17.9%
- Bayern Munich+1.0pt15.1%
- Arsenal13.2%
+33 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHI2027 Pro Football Champion
- Los Angeles R14.2%
- Buffalo6.7%
- Seattle6.7%
+29 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $86.3M
- 24h Vol
- $2M
KALSHINew England vs Seattle
- Seattle-1.0pt61.4%
- New England+2.0pt38.6%
- Total Vol
- $3.1M
- 24h Vol
- $1.7M
POLYMARKETLoL: DN SOOPers Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy (BO5) - LCK Challengers League Playoffs
- Game 4 Winner100%
- O/U 4.5 Games100%
- Both Teams Slay a Dragon100%
+37 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.7M
KALSHIMVP Winner?
- Joe Burrow11%
- Josh Allen11%
- Lamar Jackson10%
+42 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $14M
- 24h Vol
- $1.5M
- Amgen Irish Open Winner
- Counter-Strike: BIG vs G2 (BO3) - FISSURE PLAYGROUND Group A
- 2026 Men’s US Open Winner (Tennis)
- Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs GamerLegion (BO3) - FISSURE PLAYGROUND Group B
- Barcelona vs Feyenoord
- Ballon d'Or Winner 2026
- FC Barcelona vs. Feyenoord Rotterdam
- Heisman Trophy Winner
- Kulambayeva vs Yaneva
- Napoli vs Arsenal
- New England vs Seattle: Spread
- Pro Baseball Champion
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula?
- Gemini prices Aryna Sabalenka at 63% as of September 9, 2026.
- When does Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula resolve?
- Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula is scheduled to resolve on September 11, 2026.
- How is Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula settled?
- Gemini settles this market as follows: the named outcome vs the named outcome
- Where else is Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula listed?
- The same question is also listed on Limitless, Futuur, Polymarket.