Catalyst
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15
These linked markets share the same catalyst family or an approved cross-source match.
July 14, 2026 at 11:59 PM
2 linked markets
Strongest gap: 14pt
2 linked markets2 sourcesCompare-ready
MANIFOLD MARKETS
POLYMARKETWhy these markets are linked
Approved cross-source matches
Approved cross-source matches
1 approved pairs
2 linked markets already have an approved cross-source match inside this catalyst.
Same-day title family
0 same-day family markets
These markets share the same normalized title family on the same catalyst day, which is why they appear together as one upcoming event.
Source structure
2 sources
This catalyst spans multiple prediction platforms, so compare value is available directly inside the catalyst workflow.
Cross-source alignment
When approved matches exist, this catalyst surfaces the strongest agreement and disagreement signals directly on the page.
Manifold Markets / Polymarket
14pt overall gap
MANIFOLD MARKETSStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? [Polymarket]
POLYMARKETStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?
Largest differing outcome
No
Higher probability source
Manifold Markets
Catalyst schedule
Use the close schedule to understand how this catalyst unfolds across linked markets.
Linked markets by source
Review the linked markets grouped by source instead of as one flat list.
MANIFOLD MARKETS1 markets
POLYMARKET1 markets
