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  1. Prognosemärkte
  2. Geopolitik
  3. Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes?
Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes?

Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes?

0.1% (24h)One-OffGeopolitik18T
PolymarketPolymarketVerfügbarkeit prüfenKein KYC2% Gebühr
Aktuelle implizite Wahrscheinlichkeit
Ja
Ja 99%
Marktqualitat

100 / 100

Hohe Qualität
24h-Volumen

26.023,2 €

Liquidität

163.601,2 €

Hohe Liquidität
Geld / Brief

98.5% / 98.6%

Spread

0.1%

Enger Spread
7d-Änderung

+0.4%

Marktdaten

Aktualisiert vor 2 Minuten

13. Jan. 26, 21:1730. Juni 26, 0:00

Trends

Ergebnis24hWahrscheinlichkeit

Gewähltes Ergebnis

Yes99%

Regeln

This market will resolve to "Yes" if both of the following conditions are met by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Polymarket
  • Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
  • The US initiates a military action on Iranian soil, airspace, or maritime territory or against any Iranian embassies or consulates by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
  • For the purposes of this market, a "military action" will be considered to be any use of force executed by the US military on Iranian soil, airspace, or maritime territory (e.g. if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US missile) that is officially acknowledged by the US government or a consensus of credible reporting.
  • This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, or ground invasions.
  • Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.

Verwandte Märkte

US x Iran permanent peace deal by...?

US x Iran permanent peace deal by...?

4,5 Mio. €
December 31: 68%PolymarketPOLYMARKET
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by...?

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by...?

1,3 Mio. €
July 31: 56%PolymarketPOLYMARKET
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by...?

Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by...?

839.591,9 €
June 30: 31%PolymarketPOLYMARKET
Manifold Markets

Will the US attack Cuba in the next 30 days?

4869,7 €
Ja: 1%Manifold MarketsMANIFOLD MARKETS
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Will a missile, launched from Iran, hit London by the end of December 31st 2026?

4587,1 €
Ja: 1.2%Manifold MarketsMANIFOLD MARKETS
Manifold Markets

How long will “indefinite extension” US x Iran ceasefire hold? (Weeks)

1856,4 €
3 weeks+ (May 12th, 1pm): 100%Manifold MarketsMANIFOLD MARKETS

In diesen Themen aktiv

BitcoinBTC$62,689.27+2.30%EthereumETH$1,651.80+1.64%SolanaSOL$65.16+1.64%DogecoinDOGE$0.085+1.72%XRPXRP$1.12+0.36%BNBBNB$595.41+1.71%

Verwandte Nachrichten

Bitcoin price tumbles after Trump orders military response to IranCrypto NewsPentagon adds Alibaba, Baidu and BYD to China’s military-linked list Crypto NewsNo-win bets keep Iran regime change odds high as market eyes 2027Blockchain.NewsMajor cryptocurrencies under pressure as oil jumps 3%CoindeskBitcoin recedes to $63,000 as Iran-Israel trade strikes and Korean stocks crashCoindeskYear-end odds on Israel–Indonesia ties shift in PolymarketBlockchain.News

Regeln

This market will resolve to "Yes" if both of the following conditions are met by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Polymarket
  • Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
  • The US initiates a military action on Iranian soil, airspace, or maritime territory or against any Iranian embassies or consulates by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
  • For the purposes of this market, a "military action" will be considered to be any use of force executed by the US military on Iranian soil, airspace, or maritime territory (e.g. if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US missile) that is officially acknowledged by the US government or a consensus of credible reporting.
  • This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, or ground invasions.
  • Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.