Which countries will send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by July 31?
2.5% (24h)GeopolitikOne-OffMiddle East5T
PolymarketVerfügbarkeit prüfenKein KYC2% GebührVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle implizite WahrscheinlichkeitUnited States 12%-2.5%Führend unter 8 Optionen
Marktqualitat
73 / 100
Mittlere Qualität24h-Volumen
8555,7 €
Liquidität
127.190,8 €
Hohe LiquiditätGeld / Brief
10.0% / 13.0%
Spread
30.0%
Breiter Spread7d-Änderung
-9.0%
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 18 Minuten
1. Juli 26, 22:3531. Juli 26, 23:59
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This market will resolve to "Yes" if a national government, its military, or a broad consensus of credible reporting confirms that the listed country's warships transited through the Strait of Hormuz between market creation and July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
- A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz.
- Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify.
- For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman.
- Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify.