Aktuelle implizite Wahrscheinlichkeit
Les Républicains 97%Führend unter 3 Optionen
Marktqualitat
68 / 100
Mittlere Qualität24h-Volumen
11,4 €
Liquidität
24.245,9 €
Hohe LiquiditätSpread
0.2 pt
Enger SpreadKommentare
0
7d-Änderung
-0.5 pts
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 9 Minuten
19. Aug. 26, 20:15 UTC12. Okt. 26, 23:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
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KalshiRegeln
The 2026 French Senate election is scheduled for September 27, 2026, renewing série 2 — 178 of the Senate's 348 seats.
- The new senators are currently scheduled to take office on October 1, 2026, and the deadline for submitting new political-group membership lists and political declarations is currently set for October 5, 2026, at 4:00 PM CEST.
- This market will resolve according to which of the following three Senate groups holds the most French Senate seats as of October 12, 2026, 4:00 PM CEST: the Groupe the named outcome, the Groupe Socialiste, Écologiste et Républicain (SER), or the Groupe the named outcome.
- The seat count for each group will be its total membership as published by the French Senate (senat.fr), counting members (membres), related (apparentés), and affiliated (rattachés).
- A group will qualify as one of the three listed groups if it satisfies at least one of the following: - Its official name includes the listed group's name or a clear variant thereof; - Its political declaration published in the Official Journal (Journal Officiel) of France identifies it as a continuation of the listed group; or - It is publicly recognized as the continuation of the listed group, and this characterization is confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting.
- A group that changes its name will continue to qualify if it meets at least one of the criteria above.