Aktuelle implizite Wahrscheinlichkeit
Nein 74.3%
Marktqualitat
≤49 / 100
Niedrige Qualität24h-Volumen
7,9 €
Liquidität
1279,3 €
Niedrige LiquiditätGeld / Brief
24.0% / 27.0%
Spread
3.0 pt
Mittlerer SpreadKommentare
0
7d-Änderung
-1.0 pts
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 6 Minuten
31. Dez. 25, 17:10 UTC1. Jan. 27, 04:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
100kt meteor strike in 2026?
PolymarketMajor meteor strike (10kt+) in 2026?
Polymarket1 megaton meteor strike in 2026?
PolymarketWill a major meteor strike hit Earth before 2030?
KalshiWhat will happen in the rest of September? (20 mana bonus in description)
Manifold MarketsWill 2026 be the hottest year ever?
KalshiRegeln
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
- The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
- The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/.
- The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column.
- If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Offene Märkte
TechKALSHIBTC price on Sep 11, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $69,000 or above99%
- $68,500 or above+1.0pt98%
- $73,000 or above-1.0pt98%
+47 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 1,5 Mio. €
- 24h-Volumen
- 318.303,3 €
KALSHIWhen will Apple release the iPhone 18?
- Before April 2027-6.0pt69.5%
- Before March 2027+1.0pt18.1%
- Before February 20275.7%
+2 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
KALSHIBTC price on Sep 10, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $74,750 or above99%
- $72,000 or above99%
- $75,250 or above99%
+77 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 317.402,5 €
- 24h-Volumen
- 300.278,3 €
POLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 4 - September 11, 2026?
- 160-179+22.0pt51.5%
- 180-199-8.0pt26.7%
- 140-159+3.8pt15.8%
+23 weitere Ergebnisse
POLYMARKETWill Apple release a foldable iPhone by which date?
- October 31+2.8pt99%
- December 31+2.9pt99%
- September 30-6.5pt1%
+3 weitere Ergebnisse
POLYMARKETWhich company has the best AI model end of September?
- Anthropic89%
- OpenAI+0.1pt9%
- Google-0.2pt2%
+18 weitere Ergebnisse
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Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für 5kt meteor strike in 2026??
- Polymarket bewertet No mit 74% (Stand: 10. September 2026).
- Wann wird 5kt meteor strike in 2026? entschieden?
- 5kt meteor strike in 2026? soll am 1. Januar 2027 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird 5kt meteor strike in 2026? abgerechnet?
- Polymarket rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.