Will any of Belgium, France, Italy, Luxembourg, Netherlands, and/or Germany leave the EU before 2027?
GeopolitikMetaculusGeschlossenNicht verifizierte AuflösungsdatenDieser Markt wurde entschieden: No
Nicht verifizierte Auflösungsdaten
Dieses Ergebnis ist abgeleitet oder nicht durch anbietergestützte Auflösungsnachweise gedeckt.
Aktuelle Community-PrognoseNein 99.9%
Prognostiker
978
Fragetyp
binary
Methodik
Community forecast
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 146 Tagen
Veraltet15. Nov. 16, 19:46 UTC31. Jan. 27, 23:59 UTC
Wahrscheinlichkeitsverlauf
Yes0.1%
No99.9%
99.9%
0.1%
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Regeln
Anti-European sentiment is running strong in the EU and it may grow stronger – strong enough to destroy it, maybe? The UK voted for Brexit and political pundits are already discussing [Nexit](http://www.express.co.uk/news/world/717904/Nexit-Dutch-turn-right-euroscepticism-Geert-Wilders-Mark-Rutte), [Frexit](https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/27/frexit-nexit-or-oexit-who-will-be-next-to-leave-the-eu) and [Quitaly](https://www.theguardian.com/business/economics-blog/2016/jul/26/italy-economy-banks-loans-crisis-europe).
- Some commentators argue that Brexit is already the end of the EU as we know it, some would say that Brexit may be fine but if any other country was to leave would spell the end of the union.
- We choose an even stricter criterion by requiring then one of the [6 original founders of the ECSC](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inner_Six) leave the union to decree the end of the EU as we know it.
- This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2027, one or more of Belgium, France, Italy, Luxembourg, Netherlands, and/or Germany triggers Article 50 of the Treaty of Lisbon by notifying the European Council of its intention to leave the union.
- It also resolves as positive if by the same deadline the entity called European Union has dissolved completely or dissolved to create a new politico-economic union of some European nations under a different name
Offene Märkte
Geopolitics
POLYMARKETUS-Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- September 20+0.3pt97%
- September 25-7.5pt84%
- September 30-3.5pt77%
+3 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 998.627,2 €
- 24h-Volumen
- 667.474,9 €
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+21 weitere Ergebnisse
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31+0.1pt60%
- October 31+3.0pt36%
- September 309%
+17 weitere Ergebnisse
POLYMARKETWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- No-1.0pt83.2%
- Yes+1.0pt16.8%
- Gesamtvolumen
- 58,7 Mio. €
- 24h-Volumen
- 257.684,2 €
POLYMARKETBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by which date?
- December 31+3.0pt22%
- October 31+2.5pt12%
- September 30+1.1pt3%
+9 weitere Ergebnisse
POLYMARKETTrump x Greenland deal signed by which date?
- December 31-0.3pt96%
- September 25+4.0pt88%
- September 23+7.5pt74%
- US-Iran nuclear deal?
- Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
- Where will the next next round of US-Iran peace talks be?
- Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on?
- NATO x Russia military clash by which date?
- Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
- US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by which date?
- Houthis enter Aden by which date?
- Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
- Israel military action against Yemen by which date?
Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für Will any of Belgium, France, Italy, Luxembourg, Netherlands, and/or Germany leave the EU before 2027??
- Metaculus bewertet No mit 100% (Stand: 27. April 2026).
- Wann wird Will any of Belgium, France, Italy, Luxembourg, Netherlands, and/or Germany leave the EU before 2027? entschieden?
- Will any of Belgium, France, Italy, Luxembourg, Netherlands, and/or Germany leave the EU before 2027? soll am 31. Januar 2027 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird Will any of Belgium, France, Italy, Luxembourg, Netherlands, and/or Germany leave the EU before 2027? abgerechnet?
- Metaculus rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: Anti-European sentiment is running strong in the EU and it may grow stronger – strong enough to destroy it, maybe? The UK voted for Brexit and political pundits are already discussing [Nexit](http://www.express.co.uk/news/world/717904/Nexit-Dutch-turn-right-euroscepticism-Geert-Wilders-Mark-Rutte), [Frexit](https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/27/frexit-nexit-or-oexit-who-will-be-next-to-leave-the-eu) and [Quitaly](https://www.theguardian.com/business/economics-blog/2016/jul/26/italy-economy-banks-loans-crisis-europe).