Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseNein 80.5%
Prognostiker
23
Fragetyp
binary
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 7 Minuten
14. Okt. 26, 23:43 UTC31. Okt. 26, 23:41 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will Zvi write a full capabilities report on Gemini 4 Argon?
Manifold MarketsNext Muse Wonder (1.1+) released by which date?
Polymarket60 minutes: Joe Rogan joins as a Correspondent this year?
KalshiWhich celebrities will appear in mobile game advertisements this year?
KalshiWill Reckless Ben's video on Bricks and Minifigs have 10 million or more views before the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsHow many of the 50 celebrities on DeathList 2026 will pass away?
Manifold MarketsRegeln
Resolves to YES if Zvi writes a post centered around Muse Wonder before the deadline.
- Resolves to NO if Zvi does not write such a post.
- Market will not resolve early to avoid leaking information, except if the post is up and this thus resolves YES.