Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseNein 68.1%
Prognostiker
6
Fragetyp
binary
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 14 Stunden
Veraltet4. Sept. 25, 22:10 UTC31. Dez. 29, 23:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will MDMA-assisted therapy for PTSD be approved by the FDA before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill a vaccine for HIV be approved by the FDA by 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill a gene therapy that edits multiple genes using CRISPR be approved by the FDA before 2030?
Manifold MarketsBefore January 1st, 2030, will any treatment for celiac disease be approved by the FDA?
Manifold MarketsEbola pandemic in 2026?
PolymarketHantavirus pandemic in 2026?
PolymarketRegeln
Resolution criteria
- Resolve YES if, by 11:59:59 pm Eastern Time on December 31, 2029, the U.S. FDA grants any marketing authorization for human use (approval, licensure, De Novo grant, or 510(k) clearance) to a product that fits this definition: a living, multicellular construct assembled ex vivo from animal or human cells, engineered to perform autonomous tasks in vivo (e.g., locomotion/drug delivery)—i.e., a “xenobot/biobot/anthrobot”-type product.
- Verification must appear in one of the FDA’s public databases: Drugs@FDA (NDAs/BLAs), Purple Book (licensed biologics), PMA, De Novo, or 510(k).
- Links: Drugs@FDA, Purple Book, PMA, De Novo, 510(k).
- (fda.gov, accessdata.fda.gov)
- EUAs, INDs/IDEs, in vitro–only/research-use-only authorizations, animal-use approvals, or products consisting solely of dissociated cells or live microbes (e.g., standard cellular therapies or live biotherapeutics) do NOT count.
