Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertWarnung zur DatenqualitätQuelldaten beeinträchtigt
Daten vom 25.10.2026, 17:55 UTC · Richtlinie pm-quality-4
Aktuelle Community-PrognoseNein 94.8%
Prognostiker
5
Fragetyp
binary
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 12 Stunden
Veraltet5. Okt. 25, 18:36 UTC31. Dez. 82, 19:32 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will Tyler Cowen create a market on Manifold by end of 2027?
Manifold MarketsWhich people will Tyler Cowen invite to his Conversations podcast in 2026?
Manifold MarketsTyler Cowen's claims about reading and travel continue to be accepted through mid 2028
Manifold MarketsTyler Cowen thinks Claude 3 meets some definitions of AGI. Five years from now, will Claude be considered an early AGI?
Manifold MarketsWill @jim's Lightcone Commons project be allocated funding in October 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Arnav Shah win EITHER an Emergent Ventures or Thiel Fellowship by 2028?
Manifold MarketsRegeln
He was born in 1962.
- Market runs until the question is completely settled.
- https://marginalrevolution.com/
