Aktuelle Community-Prognose
Nein 85.5%
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 13 Stunden
Veraltet9. Jan. 23, 18:38 UTC1. Jan. 28, 07:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will Matt Levine create a market on Manifold by end of 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill Bill Gurley create a market on Manifold by end of 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill CFTC commissioner Caroline Pham create a market on Manifold by end of 2027?
Manifold MarketsNext Prime Minister of Romania?
PolymarketPrime Minister of Israel after the 2026 election?
KalshiWill the AfD be part of a German state government in 2026?
PolymarketRegeln
Tyler Cowen, economist at George Mason University and blogger at Marginal Revolution.
- This is one of a series of markets regarding whether select individuals or organizations that I follow will become Manifold users and create at least one market by the end of 2027 (~5 years).
- The time period is intentionally long, as these markets measure both (i) the propensity of the given person/organization to join Manifold, and (ii) Manifold's anticipated adoption by the public over time.
- To resolve positively, I must be reasonably confident that the Manifold account really is the entity they purport to be.
- IMO, it will be key for Manifold to attract public figures and organizations; this will (i) provide pre-earned credibility for these accounts as market creators (which encourages trading), and (ii) will attract the follower base of these users to Manifold as traders.
Offene Märkte
SportsKALSHISabalenka vs Noskova
- Aryna Sabalenka+6.0pt74.5%
- Linda Noskova-5.0pt25.5%
- Gesamtvolumen
- 12,2 Mio. €
- 24h-Volumen
- 11,2 Mio. €
POLYMARKETCounter-Strike: G2 vs Astralis (BO3) - FISSURE PLAYGROUND Group A
- 2 Winner+33.0pt100%
- O/U 2.5 Games+57.0pt100%
- 1 Rounds Handicap: Astralis (-3.5) vs G2 (+3.5)100%
+29 weitere Ergebnisse
POLYMARKETUEFA Champions League: 2027 Champion
- Barcelona18.1%
- Arsenal15.2%
- Paris Saint-Germain13.3%
+33 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 24 Mio. €
ROBINHOOD (ROTHERA)Aryna Sabalenka vs Linda Noskova Quarter Finals match
- Aryna Sabalenka72.6%
- Linda Noskova27.4%
- Gesamtvolumen
- 15.595,4 €
- 24h-Volumen
- 1,9 Mio. €
KALSHIUS Open Men's Singles Winner
- Carlos Alcaraz57%
- Alexander Zverev+5.0pt26%
- Ben Shelton9%
+45 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 24,1 Mio. €
- 24h-Volumen
- 1,9 Mio. €
KALSHIClub Brugge vs Aston Villa
- Aston Villa+49.0pt87.1%
- Tie-17.0pt9.9%
- Club Brugge-31.0pt3%
- Gesamtvolumen
- 2,1 Mio. €
- BV Borussia 09 Dortmund vs. Villarreal CF
- US Open WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Linda Noskova
- Tiafoe vs Michelsen
- Genoa: Thiago Seyboth Wild vs Francesco Ferrari
- United Arab Emirates vs Bangladesh
- 2027 Pro Football Champion
- MLB: Chicago Cubs vs Milwaukee Brewers (Sep 7, 2026)
- MLB: New York Mets vs Miami Marlins (Sep 7, 2026)
- Amgen Irish Open Winner
- MLB: Arizona Diamondbacks vs Kansas City Royals (Sep 7, 2026)
- Real Madrid vs Inter
- US Open ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Alex Michelsen
Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für Will Tyler Cowen create a market on Manifold by end of 2027??
- Manifold Markets bewertet No mit 86% (Stand: 8. September 2026).
- Wann wird Will Tyler Cowen create a market on Manifold by end of 2027? entschieden?
- Will Tyler Cowen create a market on Manifold by end of 2027? soll am 1. Januar 2028 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird Will Tyler Cowen create a market on Manifold by end of 2027? abgerechnet?
- Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: Tyler Cowen, economist at George Mason University and blogger at Marginal Revolution.