Aktuelle Community-Prognose
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17
Fragetyp
binary
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 1 Stunde
Verzogert9. Jan. 23, 18:38 UTC1. Jan. 28, 07:59 UTC
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Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Which people will Tyler Cowen invite to his Conversations podcast in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Tyler Cowen win a Nobel prize?
Manifold MarketsWill Tyler Cowen get diagnosed with plasticosis by EOY2039?
Manifold MarketsDoes the shortest possible universal program contain Tyler Cowen in it?
Manifold MarketsPrime Minister of Israel after the 2026 election?
KalshiNext Prime Minister of Spain?
PolymarketRegeln
Tyler Cowen, economist at George Mason University and blogger at Marginal Revolution.
- This is one of a series of markets regarding whether select individuals or organizations that I follow will become Manifold users and create at least one market by the end of 2027 (~5 years).
- The time period is intentionally long, as these markets measure both (i) the propensity of the given person/organization to join Manifold, and (ii) Manifold's anticipated adoption by the public over time.
- To resolve positively, I must be reasonably confident that the Manifold account really is the entity they purport to be.
- IMO, it will be key for Manifold to attract public figures and organizations; this will (i) provide pre-earned credibility for these accounts as market creators (which encourages trading), and (ii) will attract the follower base of these users to Manifold as traders.