Will Trump's approval rating be higher on election day (Nov. 3, 2026) than it was in his first term (Nov. 6, 2018)?
PolitikOne-OffUS-PolitikWahl6T
Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseNein 98%
Prognostiker
13
Fragetyp
binary
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 52 Minuten
Verzogert26. Jan. 26, 15:05 UTC3. Nov. 26, 23:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Trump's approval rating on Oct 30, 2026?
KalshiTrump approval rating at least ___ on October 30?
PolymarketWill Trump's approval rating increase this week? (10/23-10/30)
KalshiTrump approval rating on October 30?
PolymarketHow low will Trump's approval rating get before 2027?
KalshiHow high will Trump's approval rating get before 2027?
KalshiRegeln
Resolution Criteria
- Market resolves YES if Trump's approval rating on November 3rd, 2026 is higher on the Silver Bulletin than it was in his first term (using FiveThirtyEight, who, through the Wayback machine, puts his approval at 42.0%).
- If the Silver Bulletin is not available, then I'll use RealClearPolitics for both 2018 and 2026 (43.5% in 2018).
- Market resolves NO if equal or lower.
- Background How popular is Donald Trump? - Silver Bulletin
- Wayback Machine - FiveThirtyEight