Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseNein 61.6%
Prognostiker
22
Fragetyp
binary
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 18 Stunden
Veraltet3. Jan. 26, 14:15 UTC4. Jan. 30, 14:15 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will Trump pardon Nicolás Maduro or commute his sentence in 2026?
PredictItWill Trump pardon Nicolas Maduro before 1 Feb 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill the Spanish ex-president José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero be tried because of his involvement with Maduro’s government?
Manifold MarketsWill Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to capital punishment by US courts
Manifold MarketsWho will Trump pardon before 2027?
PolymarketWho will Trump pardon?
KalshiRegeln
Resolution criteria
- The Trump Administration has called Maduro's government "illegitimate" and accused the Venezuelan President of being a "narco-terrorist".
- This market resolves YES if Trump grants Maduro a pardon before leaving office.
- Resolution will be determined by official announcements from the White House or Trump's social media accounts.
- The market resolves NO if Trump's presidency ends without such a pardon being issued.
- Trump has taken very different approaches in his relationships with the two men—threatening to deploy military force in an escalating pressure campaign against one, while offering the other clemency, referring to Maduro and former Honduran President Hernández respectively.
Offene Märkte
US PoliticsPOLYMARKET$LAPTOP FDV above ___ one day after launch?
- $10M+1.4pt98%
- $25M+0.8pt95%
- $50M+10.0pt95%
+4 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 855.727,9 €
- 24h-Volumen
- 683.406,4 €
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff17.2%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez-1.0pt15.2%
- Gavin Newsom14.1%
+45 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 183,6 Mio. €
- 24h-Volumen
KALSHIRhode Island Democratic Governor nominee?
- Helena Foulkes-0.4pt97.1%
- Dan McKee+2.3pt2.9%
- Gregory Stevens0%
- Gesamtvolumen
- 620.092 €
- 24h-Volumen
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio+0.2pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 602,9 Mio. €
KALSHIWhich party will win the U.S. House?
- Democratic Party-1.0pt84%
- Republican Party16%
- Gesamtvolumen
- 24,3 Mio. €
- 24h-Volumen
- 215.189,4 €
POLYMARKETPrime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- Gadi Eizenkot+2.8pt57.6%
- Benjamin Netanyahu+1.0pt28.3%
- Naftali Bennett-1.0pt7.1%
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- NJ-07 House winner?
- IA-01 House winner?
- Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms
- Which states will redistrict before the midterms?
- Which party will win the House in 2026?
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- 2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?
- What will Trump say during RNC Convention (Night 2)?
Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für Will Trump pardon Maduro??
- Manifold Markets bewertet No mit 62% (Stand: 8. September 2026).
- Wann wird Will Trump pardon Maduro? entschieden?
- Will Trump pardon Maduro? soll am 4. Januar 2030 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird Will Trump pardon Maduro? abgerechnet?
- Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: Resolution criteria