Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseJa 91.1%
Prognostiker
10
Fragetyp
binary
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 3 Stunden
Veraltet13. Sept. 26, 17:13 UTC31. Dez. 26, 18:12 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Which countries will Trump make new trade deals with before 2027?
PolymarketWhich countries will Trump make formal trade deals with in 2026?
KalshiWill Trump make a recess appointment?
KalshiWhich countries will Trump make new trade deals with before 2027?
LimitlessWill President Trump make a major Gaffe During the Mid terms
Manifold MarketsWill Donald Trump make an endorsement or comment on the NZ election before polls close?
Manifold MarketsRegeln
Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to YES if Donald Trump publicly makes a new, distinct policy promise between the creation of this market and December 31, 2026, that is deemed "absurd" by a majority of voters in a community poll.
- To resolve the market:
- The promise must be new and announced after the market's creation (thus excluding previous proposals like the $5,000 "Trump dividend").
- If Trump makes a new prominent promise that is widely characterized by media, analysts, or the public as highly unrealistic or absurd, a poll will be conducted among Manifold users to determine if it meets the "absurd" threshold.
- If a simple majority of voters in the poll agree that the promise is absurd, this market resolves to YES.