Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseNein 88.7%
Prognostiker
21
Fragetyp
binary
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 12 Stunden
Veraltet8. Sept. 23, 13:11 UTC1. Jan. 29, 07:59 UTC
Trends
Regeln
The status of these two markets:
- https://manifold.markets/MartinRandall/when-will-trump-be-imprisoned
- https://manifold.markets/Duncn/will-trump-spend-any-time-in-prison
- imply that the market has a substantial chunk of its probability mass on Trump going under house arrest.
- The status of this market https://manifold.markets/BTE/will-trump-be-held-under-house-arre confirms this (though currently it is inconsistent with the "when will trump be imprisoned" market).
- This market resolves YES if Donald J. Trump is held under house arrest in the United States.
