Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseNein 85.5%
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Aktualisiert vor 15 Stunden
Veraltet5. Sept. 25, 21:57 UTC20. Jan. 29, 23:59 UTC
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Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will Trump ban gun sales to transgender people?
Manifold MarketsWill transgender people be denied US passports on the basis of trans status by the end of the 2nd Trump administration?
Manifold MarketsWill Trump ban or significantly limit Prozac?
Manifold MarketsWill it be possible for transgender people to leave the US in 2026? (Can renew passports; Not imprisoned)
Manifold MarketsTexas Senate winner?
KalshiWhich party will win the U.S. House?
KalshiRegeln
Resolves YES if the Trump or Vance bans transgender people from buying guns before 2029.
- This could happen by signing a bill, or an ATF directive.
- Ban must target trans or lgbt people.
- A ban on everyone purchasing guns would not qualify.
- A ban that is preemptively struck down by the courts would resolve NO.
- If trans people can still buy guns by dressing differently resolves NO.
